Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 21

Date: 14 March 2023, Tuesday

Location: The Wham Stadium (Accrington)

Referee: Rock D. (Eng)


	Accrington Stanley		Portsmouth

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.25	2.2
	3.25	3.2	2.2
	3.35	3.25	2.28
	3.2	3.2	2.19
	3.4	3.37	2.26
	3.4	3.2	2.15
	3.38	3.32	2.17	Watch
	3.25	3.25	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (3.18)	3.26 ↓ (3.28)	2.21 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Accrington Stanley
28.3%

Draw
29%

Portsmouth
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

28.3%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

30.4%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Accrington Stanley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

The chances for Portsmouth have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	39.3%	39.3%

Accrington Stanley - Portsmouth Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Accrington will win (votes: 6 - 21.4%). Portsmouth will win (votes: 11 - 39.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 39.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portsmouth: 21.2% – 57.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 19 and 8).

Accrington has the most likely position - 21 (12.75%), has project points - 48, has currently - 21, has a chance of relegated (42%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Portsmouth has the most likely position - 6 (9.97%), has project points - 72, has currently - 29, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (32%), has a small chance of promoted (12%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

This event has small quality 18, importance 34, small match rating 26. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Accrington won 2.

Accrington is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Portsmouth is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Portsmouth will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Accrington won 4 matches, drawn 11 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 20-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Accrington won 2 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Accrington Stanley
English League One
11.03.23	Charlton Athletic - Accrington Stanley	1:1 ✺
07.03.23	Ipswich Town - Accrington Stanley	3:0 ✺
04.03.23	Accrington Stanley - Forest Green Rovers	2:1 ✺
25.02.23	Burton Albion - Accrington Stanley	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
22.02.23	Accrington Stanley - Bolton Wanderers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TLWTL
- Portsmouth FC
English League One
11.03.23	Portsmouth - Sheffield Wednesday	0:1 ✺
07.03.23	Barnsley - Portsmouth	3:1 ✺
04.03.23	Cambridge United - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
28.02.23	Portsmouth - Bolton Wanderers	3:1 ✺
25.02.23	Portsmouth - Cheltenham Town	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
05.03.22	Portsmouth - Accrington Stanley	4:0
23.10.21	Accrington Stanley - Portsmouth	2:2
09.05.21	Portsmouth - Accrington Stanley	0:1
27.04.21	Accrington Stanley - Portsmouth	3:3
14.12.19	Accrington Stanley - Portsmouth	4:1
04.05.19	Portsmouth - Accrington Stanley	1:1
27.10.18	Accrington Stanley - Portsmouth	1:1

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