Match Info

Championship - Round 11

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Deepdale (Preston)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Preston North End		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.05	2.45	Watch
	2.91	3.2	2.52	Watch
	2.98	3.25	2.58
	13.55	3.72	1.39	Watch
	2.91	3.08	2.5	Watch
	3.05	3.15	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.71 ↑ (3.14)	3.24 ↑ (3.05)	2.31 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Preston North End
22.3%

Draw
32.3%

Birmingham City
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.2%

31.1%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

32.2%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Preston North End has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Preston North End's form might have worsened.

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Birmingham City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Preston North End than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Preston North End, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Birmingham City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.1%	36.8%	21.1%

Preston North End - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Preston will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Birmingham will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 36.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Preston: 19.9% – 64.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Preston (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Preston (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Birmingham (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Preston (votes: 3 - 50%). Birmingham (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Iversen D. (G) 14. Storey J. 19. Gibson L. 16. Hughes A. 4. Whiteman B. (C) 42. Offiah O. 3. Vukcevic A. 8. McCann A. 5. Armstrong H. 9. Jebbison D. 24. Smith M.	25. Beadle J. (G) 26. Osayi-Samuel B. 5. Neumann P. 4. Klarer C. (C) 20. Cochrane A. 7. Doyle T. 8. Paik Seung-Ho 30. Koumas L. 24. Iwata T. 14. Anderson K. 28. Stansfield J.
Substitutes
20. Carroll T. 21. Devine A. 17. Dobbin L. 10. Frokjaer-Jensen M. 6. Lindsay L. 28. Osmajic M. 26. Small T. 22. Thordarson S. T. 12. Walton J. (G)	21. Allsop R. (G) 41. Cashin E. 17. Dykes L. 27. Fujimoto K. 9. Furuhashi K. 10. Gray D. 42. Isichei D. 12. Leonard M. 23. Sampsted A.
Coaches
Heckingbottom P.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Smith M. 🟨,
12', Osayi-Samuel B. 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Neumann P. ⚽, Cochrane A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Osayi-Samuel B. ↓, Leonard M. ↑,
54', Koumas L. ↓, Gray D. ↑,
58', Iwata T. 🟨,
63', Leonard M. 🟨,
63', McCann A. ↓, Small T. ↑,
63', Vukcevic A. ↓, Devine A. ↑,
70', Anderson K. ↓, Cashin E. ↑,
70', Doyle T. ↓, Dykes L. ↑,
72', Jebbison D. ↓, Osmajic M. ↑,
83', Hughes A. ↓, Dobbin L. ↑,
86', Stansfield J. ↓, Sampsted A. ↑,
90+2', Small T. 🟨,
90+5', Paik Seung-Ho 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 8 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Preston won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Preston: Brady R. (Calf Injury) Keane W. (Muscle Injury) Potts B. (Muscle Injury) Thompson J. (Ankle Injury) Valentin P. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L. (Knee Injury) Ducksch M. (Calf Injury) Laird E. (Hamstring Injury) Robinson J. (Red Card) Willumsson W. T. (Injury) Wright S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Preston: Small T. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Preston won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Preston won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.2:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Birmingham City - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 38.61%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Preston North End
English League Championship
18.10.25	West Bromwich Albion - Preston North End	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Preston North End - Charlton Athletic	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Hull City - Preston North End	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Preston North End - Bristol City	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Derby County - Preston North End	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWTTW
- Birmingham City
English League Championship
18.10.25	Birmingham City - Hull City	2:3 ✺
03.10.25	Wrexham - Birmingham City	1:1 ✺
30.09.25	Birmingham City - Sheffield Wednesday	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Coventry City - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Birmingham City - Swansea City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.04.24	Birmingham City - Preston North End	1:0
19.09.23	Preston North End - Birmingham City	2:1
21.01.23	Birmingham City - Preston North End	1:2
03.09.22	Preston North End - Birmingham City	0:1
15.01.22	Preston North End - Birmingham City	1:1
25.09.21	Birmingham City - Preston North End	0:0
20.01.21	Birmingham City - Preston North End	0:1

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