Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 7 March 2024, Thursday

Location: Tofiq Bahramov Stadium (Baku)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN 3
Bulgaria	Ring
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV5
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Xtra
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Qarabağ Agdam		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	7.5	5.25	1.36
	8	5	1.37
	9	5	1.38	Watch
	8.67	5.22	1.38
	8.67	5.22	1.37
	8.5	5	1.35
	8.7	5.24	1.41
	8.6	5.2	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.46 ↑ (7.56)	5.14 ↑ (4.96)	1.38 ↓ (1.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qarabağ Agdam
11.4%

Draw
18.7%

Bayer Leverkusen
69.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.6%

19.1%

68.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.6%

19.1%

68.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qarabağ Agdam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.8%	3.4%	89.8%

Qarabağ Agdam - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (79 of 88 users predict this - 89.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.44% – 96.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Lunev A. (G) 29. Vesovic M. 13. Mustafazada B. 55. Huseynov B. (C) 27. Bayramov T. 66. Andrade P. 8. Jankovic M. 15. Leandro Andrade 7. Benzia Y. 10. Zoubir A. 18. Juninho	17. Kovar M. (G) 6. Kossounou O. 4. Tah J. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 20. Grimaldo A. 19. Tella N. 25. Palacios E. 8. Andrich R. 21. Adli A. 23. Hlozek A. 9. Iglesias B.
Substitutes
90. Akhundzade N. 23. Gugeshashvili L. (G) 30. Huseynov A. 24. Isayev A. 17. Keyta H. 81. Medina K. 5. Medvedev M. 89. Ramazanov A. (G) 2. Silva M. 19. Xhixha R.	30. Frimpong J. 3. Hincapie P. 7. Hofmann J. 1. Hradecky L. (G) 36. Lomb N. (G) 32. Puerta G. 14. Schick P. 2. Stanisic J. 10. Wirtz F. 34. Xhaka G.
Coaches
Gurbanov G.	Alonso X.

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.

Qarabağ is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Bayer in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Bayer could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bayer is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Qarabağ: Cafarquliyev E. (Red Card) Romao J. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Bayer: Arthur (Tendon Injury) Boniface V. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Qarabağ: Medina K. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Qarabağ won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Qarabağ won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
03.03.24	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	1:4 ✺
28.02.24	Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam	0:4 ✺
25.02.24	Qarabağ Agdam - Sumgayit	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.02.24	Qarabağ Agdam - Braga	2:3 ET ✺
15.02.24	Braga - Qarabağ Agdam	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 WWWLW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
03.03.24	Köln - Bayer Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
23.02.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	2:1 ✺
17.02.24	Heidenheim - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
10.02.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	3:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
06.02.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
09.11.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1
26.10.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Qarabağ Agdam	5:1

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