Match Info

URUGUAY: Primera Division - Apertura - Round 1

Date: 24 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico (Montevideo)

Referee: Hartwig E. (Uru)


	Rampla Juniors		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.6	1.7	Watch
	4.75	3.6	1.65
	4.75	3.75	1.66	Watch
	5.05	3.8	1.71
	5.06	3.8	1.72
	4.75	3.7	1.62
	4.82	3.78	1.67	Watch
	5	3.6	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.93 ↑ (4.83)	3.7 ↑ (3.56)	1.67 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rampla Juniors
19%

Draw
25.2%

Defensor Sporting
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.3%

26.1%

54.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19%

25.6%

55.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rampla Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

The ML Model estimate for Rampla Juniors aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	0%	17.6%

Rampla Juniors - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Rampla Juniors will win (votes: 28 - 82.4%). Defensor Sporting will win (votes: 6 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rampla Juniors: 69.6% – 95.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Samurio A. (G) 17. Barrandeguy F. 3. Centurion L. 24. Gorga S. 33. Camargo G. 18. Adoryan T. 26. Nunez M. 14. Rosa D. 16. Almeida E. 22. Dibble N. 11. Royon N.	12. Dawson K. (G) 7. Rodriguez N. 15. Viacava J. 14. Giampaoli R. 20. Pacifico P. 5. Bernal F. 8. Elizari F. 10. Duarte A. 21. Valiente J. 24. Mansilla B. 9. Rivero O.
Substitutes
23. Anasco M. 7. Barreto G. 19. Burruzo M. 28. Casuriaga F. 1. Freitas A. (G) 8. Gabriel G. 15. Graces A. 21. Leites A. 30. Madruga A. 20. Tamareo L.	11. Agazzi L. 6. Amaro M. 34. Barco A. 4. Cabrera R. 30. Cuello E. 1. Dufour M. (G) 25. Guerrero S. 19. Viudez P. 26. Wunsch N. 22. Ymbert L.
Coaches
Martinez E.	Varini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Elizari F. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Nunez M. (Pen),
40', Duarte A. 🟨,
44', Gorga S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Duarte A. ↓, Guerrero S. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Royon N. ⚽,
63', Almeida E. ↓, Madruga A. ↑,
72', Rosa D. ↓, Anasco M. ↑,
72', Royon N. ↓, Tamareo L. ↑,
79', Pacifico P. ↓, Cabrera R. ↑,
79', Elizari F. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
79', Viacava J. ↓, Barco A. ↑,
80', Adoryan T. ↓, Casuriaga F. ↑,
80', Dibble N. ↓, Burruzo M. ↑,
81', Wunsch N. 🟨,
86', Samurio A. 🟨,
89', Bernal F. ↓, Amaro M. ↑,
90+5', Giampaoli R. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rampla Juniors won 0.

Rampla Juniors is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Defensor Sporting is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Defensor Sporting could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Defensor Sporting is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Rampla Juniors won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 6-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Rampla Juniors won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rampla Juniors
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.04.24	Nacional Montevideo - Rampla Juniors	6:2 ✺
14.04.24	Rampla Juniors - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
07.04.24	Cerro - Rampla Juniors	3:0 ✺
30.03.24	Rampla Juniors - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:0 ✺
27.03.24	Progreso - Rampla Juniors	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLWL
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.04.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
10.04.24	Defensor Sporting - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
05.04.24	Boston River - Defensor Sporting	2:2 ✺
30.03.24	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
05.08.21	Defensor Sporting - Rampla Juniors	1:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
21.09.19	Defensor Sporting - Rampla Juniors	1:0
03.03.19	Rampla Juniors - Defensor Sporting	0:2
12.08.18	Defensor Sporting - Rampla Juniors	2:2
24.02.18	Rampla Juniors - Defensor Sporting	1:1
20.08.17	Rampla Juniors - Defensor Sporting	2:2
04.06.17	Rampla Juniors - Defensor Sporting	1:2

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