Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 5 November 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport, Solh TV
Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2, VTM GO
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, TNT, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN
Cote-d-ivoire	RTI 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	Canal+ Live 2, New World TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Sport 3
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	RTL+, Sport 1, Sport 2
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 3
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Japan	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malta	TSN Malta 7
Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Sports
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
North-central-america	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	Canal 11, DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Kanal A, Voyo
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ 1, #Vamos
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Varzish Sport
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1, Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 4
Usa	Paramount+, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app


	Real Madrid		Milan

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.75	6.25
	1.41	4.6	6
	1.47	4.85	6.6	Watch
	1.45	5.14	6.59
	1.49	4.94	6.38	Watch
	1.44	4.8	7
	1.48	4.88	6.66
	1.47	4.85	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.55)	4.85 ↑ (4.6)	6.51 ↑ (5.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: UniMás

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
65.6%

Draw
19.7%

Milan
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

20.9%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.5%

20.1%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.7%	11.8%	5.5%

Real Madrid - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (91 of 108 users predict this - 84.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.39% – 91.13%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lunin A. (G) 17. Lucas 3. Militao E. 22. Rudiger A. 23. Mendy F. 8. Valverde F. 14. Tchouameni A. 10. Modric L. (C) 5. Bellingham J. 9. Mbappe K. 7. Vinicius Junior	16. Maignan M. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 28. Thiaw M. 23. Tomori F. 19. Hernandez T. (C) 80. Musah Y. 29. Fofana Y. 14. Reijnders T. 11. Pulisic C. 7. Morata A. 10. Leao R.
Substitutes
6. Camavinga E. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 16. Endrick 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 15. Guler A. 34. Mestre S. (G) 11. Rodrygo 18. Vallejo J.	90. Abraham T. 2. Calabria D. 73. Camarda F. 21. Chukwueze S. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 17. Okafor N. 31. Pavlovic S. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 42. Terracciano F. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Ancelotti C.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Thiaw M. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
21', Morata A. 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior (Pen),
39', 1 - 2, Morata A. ⚽, Leao R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Valverde F. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
46', Tchouameni A. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
58', Camavinga E. 🟨,
63', Modric L. ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
68', Lucas 🟨,
68', Militao E. 🟨,
70', Morata A. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
70', Pulisic C. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
71', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
73', 1 - 3, Reijnders T. ⚽, Leao R. (A),
74', Bellingham J. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
74', Mendy F. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
77', Leao R. ↓, Okafor N. ↑,
85', Fofana Y. 🟨,
90+3', Emerson Royal ↓, Calabria D. ↑,
90+3', Musah Y. ↓, Pavlovic S. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Real won 3.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Milan could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Real is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Knee Injury) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Bennacer I. (Calf Injury) Florenzi A. (Knee Injury) Gabbia M. (Muscle Injury) Jovic L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Real: Courtois T. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Milan: Calabria D. (Calf Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Real won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:8 (average 1.3:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Real won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:5 (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
26.10.24	Real Madrid - Barcelona	0:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.24	Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund	5:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
19.10.24	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
05.10.24	Real Madrid - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
02.10.24	Lille - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWWL
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
02.11.24	Monza - Milan	0:1 ✺
29.10.24	Milan - Napoli	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.24	Milan - Club Brugge	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
19.10.24	Milan - Udinese	1:0 ✺
06.10.24	Fiorentina - Milan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
31.07.24	Milan - Real Madrid	1:0
23.07.23	Milan - Real Madrid	2:3
08.08.21	Real Madrid - Milan	0:0
11.08.18	Real Madrid - Milan	3:1
International Champions Cup
30.07.15	Real Madrid - Milan	1:0 penalties
Club Friendly
30.12.14	Real Madrid - Milan	2:4
World Football Challenge
08.08.12	Real Madrid - Milan	N/A

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