Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Australia	beIN Connect
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South-america	DGO Latin America
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Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Disney+, DSports 1, Inter
World	Onefootball


	River Plate		Red Bull Bragantino

	1	X	2
	2.63	2.9	3	Watch
	2.55	3	2.85
	2.58	2.82	2.98	Watch
	2.69	2.97	3.05
	2.7	2.81	3.06	Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.88	Watch
	2.63	2.95	2.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (1.83)	2.89 ↓ (3.37)	2.97 ↓ (4.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate
35.8%

Draw
32.5%

Red Bull Bragantino
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

28.1%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

27.7%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that River Plate's form might have worsened.

Red Bull Bragantino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Red Bull Bragantino's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for River Plate than the current prediction. (+16.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for River Plate, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Bragantino than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Red Bull Bragantino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	15.4%	38.5%

River Plate - Red Bull Bragantino Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. River Plate will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). RB Bragantino will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for River Plate: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - RB Bragantino (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Bragantino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armani F. (C) 36. Gimenez U. 20. Pezzella G. 17. Diaz P. 31. Gonzalez F. 34. Giuliano Galoppo 22. Castano K. 38. Subiabre I. 10. Quintero J. 8. Meza M. 7. Salas M.	1. Cleiton (G) 23. Sant'Anna A. (C) 4. Alix Vinicius 14. Pedro Henrique 29. Juninho Capixaba 6. Gabriel 7. Eric Ramires 32. Herrera J. 21. Lucas Barbosa 30. Mosquera H. 9. Pitta I.
Substitutes
52. Asuzu J. 33. Centurion E. (G) 39. Lencina S. 43. Lucero V. 40. Obregon A. 19. Paez K. 25. Pereyra L. 13. Rivero L. 44. Silva L.	46. Breno 8. Eduardo Sasha 11. Fernando Santos 16. Gustavo Marques 22. Gustavo Neves 34. Hurtado A. 57. Marcelinho 20. Rodriguinho 15. Sosa I. 18. Tiago Volpi (G) 12. Vanderlan 17. Vinicinho
Coaches
Coudet E.	Vagner Mancini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Alix Vinicius ⚽, Pitta I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Meza M. ↓, Pereyra L. ↑,
46', Lucas Barbosa ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
46', Subiabre I. ↓, Lencina S. ↑,
47', Gimenez U. 🟨,
51', Juninho Capixaba 🟨,
56', Castano K. 🟨,
65', Pitta I. ↓, Eduardo Sasha ↑,
65', Mosquera H. ↓, Fernando Santos ↑,
73', Giuliano Galoppo ↓, Silva L. ↑,
83', Eric Ramires ↓, Sosa I. ↑,
83', Castano K. ↓, Paez K. ↑,
87', Herrera J. ↓, Hurtado A. ↑,
90', Gimenez U. ↓, Asuzu J. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Pereyra L. ⚽,

Preview

River Plate is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

RB Bragantino's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

RB Bragantino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, River Plate has had a series of home games.

Recently, RB Bragantino has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, River Plate won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

River Plate - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 51.73%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.05.26	River Plate - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
13.05.26	River Plate - Gimnasia La Plata	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	River Plate - San Lorenzo	3:2 penalties ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.26	Carabobo - River Plate	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.26	River Plate - Atlético Tucumán	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWWL
- Red Bull Bragantino
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Vitória Salvador	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Santos - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.26	Blooming - Red Bull Bragantino	0:6 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	Chapecoense - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
30.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - River Plate	0:1

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