Match Info

Date: 16 October 2021, Saturday


	River Plate Montevideo		Sud América

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	5	Watch
	1.51	4	5.75
	1.55	3.7	4.7
	1.56	3.85	5
	1.62	4.2	5.53
	1.57	3.7	5.25
	1.59	4	5.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.53)	3.89 ↓ (4.21)	5.21 ↓ (5.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
58.7%

Draw
23.6%

Sud América
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

22.2%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

14.1%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Sud América has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-20%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with River Plate Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sud América than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sud América could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

River Plate Montevideo - Sud América Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 13).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Sud América could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match River Plate is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches River Plate won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 17-16.

Including matches at home between the teams River Plate won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
09.10.21	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
02.10.21	River Plate Montevideo - Cerro Largo	0:4 ✺
25.09.21	River Plate Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:2 ✺
19.09.21	Liverpool Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:1 ✺
11.09.21	River Plate Montevideo - Cerrito	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLW
- IA Sud América
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.10.21	Sud América - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1 ✺
01.10.21	Cerrito - Sud América	2:0 ✺
25.09.21	Sud América - Nacional Montevideo	0:2 ✺
18.09.21	Villa Española - Sud América	1:2 ✺
11.09.21	Sud América - Montevideo City Torque	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
19.06.21	Sud América - River Plate Montevideo	1:2
04.11.17	River Plate Montevideo - Sud América	1:2
04.06.17	River Plate Montevideo - Sud América	0:2
26.03.17	Sud América - River Plate Montevideo	1:2
25.09.16	River Plate Montevideo - Sud América	0:3
20.02.16	Sud América - River Plate Montevideo	2:1
29.08.15	River Plate Montevideo - Sud América	2:0

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