Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 21

Date: 21 February 2023, Tuesday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)

Referee: Boyeson C. (Eng)


	Rochdale		Stockport County

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.6	1.67
	5.5	3.5	1.6
	4.8	3.6	1.7
	3.8	3.4	1.92
	5.95	3.69	1.67
	5.25	3.4	1.7
	5.45	3.68	1.66	Watch
	5.2	3.65	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.18 ↑ (3.35)	3.57 ↑ (3.16)	1.69 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
18.1%

Draw
26.3%

Stockport County
55.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.7%

29.3%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.6%

28.2%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Rochdale's form might have worsened.

Stockport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stockport County's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rochdale, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stockport County than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stockport County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.7%	1.9%	92.5%

Rochdale - Stockport County Predictions

Users Predictions: Stockport County will win (49 of 53 users predict this - 92.45%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.34% – 99.56%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 21 and 12).

Rochdale has the most likely position - 23 (17.15%), has project points - 44, has currently - 15, has a chance of relegated (33%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Stockport has the most likely position - 7 (8.1%), has project points - 68, has currently - 28, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (29%), has a chance of promoted (17%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 9, importance 32, small match rating 20. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Rochdale is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Stockport is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Rochdale could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Stockport is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Rochdale won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
18.02.23	Rochdale - Gillingham	0:2 ✺
14.02.23	Leyton Orient - Rochdale	2:1 ✺
11.02.23	Rochdale - Northampton Town	1:1 ✺
04.02.23	Salford City - Rochdale	2:1 ✺
28.01.23	Rochdale - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLTLL
- Stockport County
English League Two
18.02.23	Stockport County - Stevenage Borough	2:0 ✺
14.02.23	Stockport County - Crawley Town	2:1 ✺
11.02.23	Harrogate Town - Stockport County	1:3 ✺
04.02.23	Stockport County - Tranmere Rovers	3:2 ✺
31.01.23	Crewe Alexandra - Stockport County	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
07.11.20	Rochdale - Stockport County	1:2
Club Friendly
17.07.18	Stockport County - Rochdale	0:1

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