Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 31

Date: 11 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Spotland Stadium (Rochdale)

Referee: Hair N. (Eng)


	Rochdale		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	3.8	3	2.15
	3.6	3	2.2
	3.3	3.2	2.2
	3.79	3.19	2.19
	3.5	3	2.25
	3.64	3.15	2.15	Watch
	3.4	2.95	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↑ (3.34)	3.07 ↓ (3.16)	2.19 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rochdale
26.3%

Draw
30.7%

Northampton Town
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

29.8%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

29.1%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	5.6%	83.3%

Rochdale - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Rochdale will win (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Northampton will win (votes: 15 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Northampton: 66.1% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs)).

Rochdale has the most likely position - 24 (52.66%), has project points - 37, has currently - 20, has a good chance of relegated (75%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Northampton has the most likely position - 3 (23.48%), has project points - 81, has currently - 50, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (42%), has a good chance of promoted (58%), has a small chance of win league (9%).

This event has very small quality 9, importance 59, match rating 34. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 2.

Rochdale is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Northampton is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Northampton will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Rochdale won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Rochdale won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
04.02.23	Salford City - Rochdale	2:1 ✺
28.01.23	Rochdale - Carlisle United	0:1 ✺
21.01.23	Hartlepool United - Rochdale	2:0 ✺
14.01.23	Rochdale - Colchester United	1:2 ✺
10.01.23	Bradford City - Rochdale	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLLLW
- Northampton Town
English League Two
04.02.23	Northampton Town - Walsall	0:0 ✺
28.01.23	Barrow - Northampton Town	0:2 ✺
14.01.23	Stockport County - Northampton Town	2:0 ✺
07.01.23	Salford City - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
02.01.23	Northampton Town - Leyton Orient	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
17.09.22	Northampton Town - Rochdale	3:0
26.02.22	Rochdale - Northampton Town	1:0
21.08.21	Northampton Town - Rochdale	1:3
English League One
23.02.21	Northampton Town - Rochdale	0:0
24.11.20	Rochdale - Northampton Town	1:1
03.02.18	Northampton Town - Rochdale	0:1
17.10.17	Rochdale - Northampton Town	2:2

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