Match Info

Serie B - Round 18

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	São Bernardo		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.30	4.00
	1.95	3.10	3.70
	1.95	3.30	3.90
	2.02	3.31	4.23
	1.95	3.32	4	Watch
	1.98	3.25	4.15
	1.94	3.29	3.99
	1.96	3.20	3.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.9)	3.26 ↓ (3.4)	3.98 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
47.8%

Draw
28.7%

Avaí
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

27.4%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

22.8%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with São Bernardo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	36.4%	18.2%

São Bernardo - Avaí Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. São Bernardo will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Avaí will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Bernardo: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Bernardo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 35. Jemerson 97. Augusto 6. Para 26. Dudu Miraima 17. Romisson 8. Foguinho (C) 7. Lucas Rian 9. Felipe Garcia 27. Echapora	1. Igor Bohn (G) 2. Wallison 3. Allyson 38. Jefferson Maciel 36. DG 43. Thayllon 77. Ze Ricardo (C) 8. Luiz Henrique 11. Sorriso 14. Daniel Penha 10. Jean Lucas
Substitutes
89. Daniel Amorim 10. Fabricio Daniel 25. Gonzaga W. 3. Helder Maciel 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 14. Lucas Lima 70. Lucas Reis 77. Marcao Silva 33. Mario Sergio 29. Pedrinho	4. Gabriel Simples 16. Jamerson 50. Joao Maistro 17. Juan Rocha 9. Leo Gamalho 21. Otavio Passos (G) 25. Paulo Vitor 66. Quaresma 95. Wenderson
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Aal A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', DG 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Jemerson ⚽, Felipe Garcia (A),
45', Ze Ricardo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', DG ↓, Quaresma ↑,
46', Sorriso ↓, Juan Rocha ↑,
57', Echapora 🟨,
62', 1 - 1, Daniel Penha ⚽, Jean Lucas (A),
64', Augusto 🟨,
66', Dudu Miraima 🟨,
69', Echapora ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
69', Dudu Miraima ↓, Hyoran ↑,
69', Foguinho ↓, Lucas Lima ↑,
79', Ze Ricardo ↓, Wenderson ↑,
79', Jean Lucas ↓, Leo Gamalho ↑,
80', Lucas Rian ↓, Daniel Amorim ↑,
83', Jefferson Maciel ↓, Joao Maistro ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 7 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

São Bernardo is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Avaí has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, São Bernardo is a strong favorite.

There will not play in São Bernardo: Davi D. (Yellow Cards) Lucas Fernandes (Injury) Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Pedro Vitor (Inactive) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Avaí: Hyan (Inactive) Isaias (Injury) Leo Gamalho (Inactive) Romildo Del Piage (Inactive) William (Red Card)

There are questionable in Avaí: Cristiano (Inactive) Leo Aragao (Inactive) Pedro Cuiaba (Inactive) Rafael Bilu (Inactive)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Sao Bernardo: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Last Results with these Odds

Avaí - the odds 3.95 are the expected chance of winning is 23.58%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
12.07.26	São Bernardo - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
06.07.26	Vila Nova - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
27.06.26	Criciúma - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	São Bernardo - Juventude	0:1 ✺
14.06.26	São Bernardo - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLLLT
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
12.07.26	Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
06.07.26	Botafogo SP - Avaí	3:1 ✺
28.06.26	Athletic Club - Avaí	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Avaí - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
15.06.26	Londrina - Avaí	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLLWL

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