Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 10 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN 5 South, ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	São Paulo		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.2	12	Watch
	1.38	4.5	8.25
	1.35	4.2	12	Watch
	1.37	4.13	13.26	Watch
	1.36	4.2	8.5	Watch
	1.36	4.28	12.2	Watch
	1.35	4.2	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.42)	4.24 ↓ (4.43)	11.17 ↑ (7.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
69.4%

Draw
22.2%

Alianza Lima
8.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

21.4%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.8%

20.4%

11.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

São Paulo - Alianza Lima Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 13. Diaz E. 25. Alisson 20. Marcos Antonio 48. Lucas Ferreira 10. Luciano 11. Ferreira 9. Jonathan Calleri	23. Viscarra G. (G) 14. Huaman M. 35. Velasquez J. 15. Castillo J. 13. Lagos R. 20. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 4. Noriega E. 8. Castillo E. 7. Gaibor F. 27. Quevedo K. 9. Barcos H.
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 21. Bobadilla D. 43. Felipe Negrucci 2. Igor Vinicius 93. Jandrei (G) 47. Matheus Alves 15. Rodriguinho 22. Ruan Tressoldi 49. Ryan Francisco 35. Sabino 6. Soares C. 18. Wendell	28. Aguirre G. 3. Amasifuen N. 29. Arias B. 1. Campos A. (G) 51. Cari P. 11. D'Arrigo J. 37. Delgado J. 44. Gomez C. 34. Paolo Guerrero 24. Soyer B. 16. Succar M. 21. Trauco M.
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Gorosito N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', Zubeldia L. 🟨,
22', Marcos Antonio 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Ferreira ⚽, Luciano (A),
37', 2 - 0, Ferreira ⚽, Marcos Antonio (A),
45+2', Noriega E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Robert Arboleda ↓, Ruan Tressoldi ↑,
65', Ferreira ↓, Wendell ↑,
66', 2 - 1, Castillo E. ⚽, Gaibor F. (A),
72', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Cari P. ↑,
72', Barcos H. ↓, Paolo Guerrero ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Quevedo K. ⚽, Huaman M. (A),
81', Castillo J. ↓, Delgado J. ↑,
83', Luciano ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
84', Diaz E. ↓, Matheus Alves ↑,
84', Ferraresi N. ↓, Soares C. ↑,
90', Castillo E. ↓, Gomez C. ↑,
90+1', Velasquez J. 🟨,
90+1', Velasquez J. ↓, Amasifuen N. ↑,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Alianza Lima have a series of home games.

In this match São Paulo is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Inactive) Pablo Maia (Inactive)

There will not play in Alianza Lima: Enrique G. (Yellow Cards) Enrique G. (Red Card) Garces R. (Yellow Cards) Zambrano C. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Alianza Lima: Cantero A. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Talleres de Córdoba - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	São Paulo - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
10.03.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
03.03.25	São Paulo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TWTLW
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
05.04.25	Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
01.04.25	Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
29.03.25	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.03.25	Alianza Lima - Deportes Iquique	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
07.03.25	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLLTW

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