Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 5

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos, Flow Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Uruguay	Flow


	São Paulo		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	7	Watch
	1.46	4.5	6.75
	1.46	4.25	6.4
	1.45	4.57	7.98
	1.46	4.01	7.63	Watch
	1.4	4.2	7
	1.45	4.58	7.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.4)	4.35 ↓ (4.38)	7.17 ↓ (7.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
65.2%

Draw
21.6%

Chapecoense
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.5%

21.3%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

20%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Paulo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

São Paulo - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Chapecoense will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Chapecoense (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Chapecoense (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 18. Wendell 94. Danielzinho 16. Bobadilla D. 8. Marcos Antonio 7. Lucas Moura 10. Luciano 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)	12. Leo Vieira (G) 26. Everton 25. Victor Caetano 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 3. Eduardo Doma 37. Clar W. 7. Marcinho 27. Camilo Reijers 99. Rafael Carvalheira 11. Bolasie Y. 20. Jean Carlos
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 56. Bosshardt N. 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 80. Cauly 11. Ferreira 33. Luan Silva 42. Maik 4. Matheus Doria 29. Pablo Maia 5. Robert Arboleda 14. Tapia G. 2. Toloi R.	91. Bruno Pacheco 19. David Antunes 97. Enio 10. Giovanni Augusto 22. Higor Meritao 77. Italo 4. Joao Paulo 5. Joao Vitor 18. Neto Pessoa 1. Rafael Santos (G) 15. Rafael Thyere 70. Rubens Ricoldi
Coaches
Roger Machado	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Rafael Carvalheira 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Marcinho ↓, Italo ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Luciano ⚽, Marcos Antonio (A),
60', 2 - 0, Jonathan Calleri ⚽, Bobadilla D. (A),
68', Rafael Carvalheira ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
68', Victor Caetano ↓, Rubens Ricoldi ↑,
68', Bolasie Y. ↓, Neto Pessoa ↑,
81', Bobadilla D. ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
82', Lucas Moura ↓, Cauly ↑,
82', Luciano ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
82', Jean Carlos ↓, Giovanni Augusto ↑,
90+3', Wendell ↓, Bosshardt N. ↑,
90+3', Franco A. ↓, Robert Arboleda ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.

São Paulo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chapecoense's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

São Paulo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.

In this match, São Paulo is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Lucca Marques (Inactive) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Bruno Matias (Knee Injury) Mancha (Knee Injury) Robert Conceicao (Inactive)

We predict that São Paulo will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.6:0.9).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Sao Paulo: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
20	Chapecoense-SC	28	3	9	16	29:57	-28	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
01.03.26	Palmeiras - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Coritiba - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.02.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWWW
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
08.03.26	Chapecoense - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Chapecoense - Brusque	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Chapecoense - Coritiba	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
03.10.21	Chapecoense - São Paulo	1:1
16.06.21	São Paulo - Chapecoense	1:1
02.11.19	Chapecoense - São Paulo	0:3
22.07.19	São Paulo - Chapecoense	4:0
02.12.18	Chapecoense - São Paulo	1:0
19.08.18	São Paulo - Chapecoense	2:0
09.11.17	São Paulo - Chapecoense	2:2

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