Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 10

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win Sports
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 1
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	São Paulo		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.18	3.15	3.35	Watch
	2.28	3.23	3.58
	2.23	3.23	3.45	Watch
	2.2	3	3.3
	2.18	3.27	3.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.14)	3.18 ↓ (3.35)	3.49 ↓ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

São Paulo
43%

Draw
29.8%

Cruzeiro
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

28.4%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

28.9%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	23.1%	7.7%

São Paulo - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 2. Toloi R. 35. Sabino 18. Wendell 16. Bobadilla D. 8. Marcos Antonio 37. Artur 10. Luciano 11. Ferreira 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)	31. Matheus Cunha (G) 12. William Furtado 15. Fabricio Bruno 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 8. Matheus Henrique 11. Gerson 99. Arroyo K. 10. Matheus Pereira (C) 88. Christian 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 80. Cauly 94. Danielzinho 13. Diaz E. 34. dos Santos P. 33. Luan Silva 4. Matheus Doria 29. Pablo Maia 46. Pedro Ferreira 21. Soares C. 14. Tapia G.	91. Chico 23. Fagner 43. Joao Marcelo 34. Jonathan Jesus 2. Kaua Moraes 36. Kaua Prates 70. Kenji 16. Lucas Silva 81. Otavio Costa (G) 22. Villarreal N. 5. Walace 94. Wanderson
Coaches
Roger Machado	Artur Jorge

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Jonathan Calleri (Penalty Awarded),
16', 2 - 0, Ferreira ⚽, Artur (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Matheus Henrique ↓, Lucas Silva ↑,
46', William Furtado ↓, Kaua Moraes ↑,
46', Sabino ↓, Matheus Doria ↑,
47', 2 - 1, Christian ⚽, Arroyo K. (A),
60', Luciano ↓, Cauly ↑,
62', 3 - 1, Ferreira ⚽,
67', Wendell 🟨,
68', Wendell ↓, Diaz E. ↑,
68', Gerson ↓, Wanderson ↑,
68', Arroyo K. ↓, Chico ↑,
76', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
77', Bobadilla D. ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
83', Kaio Jorge ↓, Villarreal N. ↑,
83', Fabricio Bruno ↓, Jonathan Jesus ↑,
90+1', 4 - 1, Ferreira ⚽,
90+3', Ferreira 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

São Paulo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in São Paulo: Carlos Coronel (Inactive) Franco A. (Injury) Lucas Moura (Broken rib) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Cassio (Knee Injury) Marquinhos (Knee Injury) Sinisterra L. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucca Marques (Ribs Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.2:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
01.04.26	Internacional RS - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	São Paulo - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
12.03.26	São Paulo - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TLLWW
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
01.04.26	Cruzeiro - Vitória Salvador	3:0 ✺
22.03.26	Cruzeiro - Santos	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Athletico Paranaense - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	3:3 ✺
11.03.26	Flamengo - Cruzeiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
30.08.25	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	1:0
13.04.25	São Paulo - Cruzeiro	1:1
Club Friendly
15.01.25	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
15.09.24	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	0:1
02.06.24	São Paulo - Cruzeiro	2:0
02.11.23	São Paulo - Cruzeiro	1:0
24.06.23	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	1:0

Upcoming Matches