The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
SPAL 24.3%
Draw 27.3%
Parma 48.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
32.3%
29.9%
37.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32%
29.6%
38.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that SPAL's form might have worsened.
Parma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Parma's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+7.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for SPAL, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Parma than the current prediction. (-10.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Parma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
29.4%
17.6%
52.9%
SPAL - Parma Predictions
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. SPAL will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Parma will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Confidence interval (95%) for Parma: 29.2% โ 76.6%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (63.82%), project points - 37, currently - 35, a very good chance of relegated (96%), not chance of prom. playoffs.
Parma has the most likely position - 5 (46.01%), project points - 58, currently - 55, not chance of relegated, already of prom. playoffs, a chance of promoted (16%), not chance of win league.
This event has quality32, importance32, match rating32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches SPAL won 3.
Recent matches SPAL is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Parma is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Parma will have a poor advantage in this game.
Last 7 head-to-head matches SPAL won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-8.
Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.
Italy
Watch
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