Match Info

J1 League - Round 33

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima (Hiroshima)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Sanfrecce Hiroshima		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.4
	2.1	3.15	3.45	Watch
	2.13	3.36	3.83
	2.22	3.13	3.40	Watch
	2.21	3.3	3.42	Watch
	2.12	3.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.23)	3.22 ↑ (3.2)	3.51 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
43.9%

Draw
29.3%

Machida Zelvia
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

29.6%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

29.5%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	27.3%	27.3%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Hiroshima will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hiroshima: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Hiroshima (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Machida Zelvia (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Machida Zelvia (1.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Hiroshima (votes: 1 - 20%). Machida Zelvia (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Osako K. (G) 19. Sasaki S. 4. Araki H. 37. Kim Ju-Sung 15. Nakano S. 33. Shiotani T. 14. Tanaka S. 24. Higashi S. 35. Nakajima Y. 6. Kawabe H. 17. Kinoshita K.	1. Tani K. (G) 5. Dresevic I. 3. Shoji G. 19. Nakayama Y. 6. Mochizuki H. 16. Mae H. 18. Shimoda H. 11. Masuyama A. 20. Nishimura T. 7. Soma Y. 9. Fujio S.
Substitutes
13. Arai N. 30. Arslan T. 25. Chajima Y. 98. Germain V. 26. Jeong Min-Ki (G) 51. Kato M. 41. Maeda N. 18. Suga D. 3. Yamasaki T.	15. Duke M. 26. Hayashi K. 2. Imai T. 49. Kuwayama K. 13. Morita T. (G) 10. Na Sang-Ho 22. Numata T. 90. Oh Se-Hun 8. Sento K.
Coaches
Skibbe M.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Kinoshita K. ↓, Germain V. ↑,
29', Nishimura T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', 0 - 1, Soma Y. ⚽, Mae H. (A),
61', Nakano S. ↓, Arai N. ↑,
62', Shiotani T. ↓, Arslan T. ↑,
62', Higashi S. ↓, Suga D. ↑,
65', Fujio S. ↓, Duke M. ↑,
65', Nishimura T. ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,
76', Nakajima Y. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
81', Soma Y. ↓, Sento K. ↑,
81', Masuyama A. ↓, Hayashi K. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Kim Ju-Sung ⚽, Suga D. (A),
89', Kim Ju-Sung 🟨,
89', Shimoda H. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Arslan T. (Pen),
90+5', Arslan T. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 and 5).

Hiroshima is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In recent matches, Machida Zelvia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hiroshima could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Hiroshima: Nakajima Y. (International duty)

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury) Okamura D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Hiroshima: Marcos Junior (Injury) Suga D. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Hiroshima won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
AFC Champions League
30.09.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shanghai Port	1:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
27.09.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2 ✺
23.09.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
16.09.25	Melbourne City - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
12.09.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TWTWT
- Machida Zelvia
AFC Champions League
30.09.25	Johor Darul Takzim - Machida Zelvia	0:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
27.09.25	Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama	1:0 ✺
23.09.25	Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
16.09.25	Machida Zelvia - FC Seoul	1:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
12.09.25	Machida Zelvia - Yokohama FC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
16.02.25	Machida Zelvia - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2
30.09.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Machida Zelvia	2:0
03.04.24	Machida Zelvia - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2

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