Match Info

Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Arechi (Salerno)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, RaiPlay, RAI Sport, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
International	Onefootball


	Salernitana		Casertana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.82	3.35	4.05	Watch
	1.86	3.43	4.31
	1.78	3.44	4.28	Watch
	1.83	3.1	3.9
	1.83	3.5	4.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.6)	3.36 ↓ (3.4)	4.16 ↓ (5.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salernitana
50.5%

Draw
27.4%

Casertana
22.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.1%

26.9%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

25.6%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salernitana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Salernitana's form might have worsened.

Casertana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Casertana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Salernitana than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Salernitana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Casertana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Salernitana - Casertana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Donnarumma A. (G) 26. Matino E. 18. Golemic V. 33. Anastasio A. 35. Cabianca E. 6. de Boer K. 29. Tascone M. 14. Villa L. 20. Ferraris A. 10. Ferrari F. 32. Lescano F.	1. De Lucia V. (G) 6. Heinz J. 33. Rocchi G. 23. Martino P. 18. Oukhadda S. 25. Toscano M. 16. Pezzella S. 8. Proia F. 5. Llano Massa M. T. 9. Kallon Y. 7. Butic K.
Substitutes
7. Achik I. 11. Antonucci M. 2. Berra F. 70. Boncori L. 12. Brancolini F. (G) 5. Capomaggio G. 21. Carriero G. 45. Di Vico R. 4. Gyabuaa M. 16. Haxhiu F. 9. Inglese R. 28. Longobardi G. 25. Molina J. I. 24. Quirini E.	51. Arzillo V. 13. Bacchetti L. 90. Casarotto M. 11. Galletta U. 21. Girelli S. 4. Kontek I. 10. Leone K. 94. Liotti D. 12. Merolla E. (G) 99. Saco C. 91. Vano M. 22. Vilardi A. (G) 17. Viscardi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Toscano M. 🟨,
39', Ferrari F. 🟨,
45+1', Llano Massa M. T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Lescano F. ↓, Achik I. ↑,
57', Toscano M. ↓, Girelli S. ↑,
57', Llano Massa M. T. ↓, Casarotto M. ↑,
66', Martino P. 🟨,
69', Proia F. ↓, Saco C. ↑,
77', 0 - 1, Heinz J. ⚽,
79', Heinz J. 🟨,
80', Matino E. 🟨,
84', Martino P. ↓, Vano M. ↑,
84', Oukhadda S. ↓, Leone K. ↑,
85', Girelli S. 🟨,
87', Ferraris A. ↓, Capomaggio G. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 1, Achik I. ⚽,
90+2', Matino E. ↓, Berra F. ↑,
90+4', Vano M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 3-2.

Salernitana is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Casertana has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Salernitana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Casertana has had a series of home games.

Salernitana might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Salernitana won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Salernitana won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Salernitana 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
10.05.26	Casertana - Salernitana	2:3 ✺
Italian Serie C Group C
26.04.26	Foggia - Salernitana	1:3 ✺
19.04.26	Salernitana - Picerno	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Trapani - Salernitana	1:2 ✺
06.04.26	Salernitana - Benevento	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWWL
- FC Casertana
Italian Serie C Group A
10.05.26	Casertana - Salernitana	2:3 ✺
06.05.26	Casertana - Crotone	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Casertana - Atalanta U23	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group C
26.04.26	Casertana - Giugliano	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Latina - Casertana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
10.05.26	Casertana - Salernitana	2:3
Italian Serie C Group C
05.03.26	Casertana - Salernitana	1:0
26.10.25	Salernitana - Casertana	2:1
09.05.15	Salernitana - Casertana	1:1
06.01.15	Casertana - Salernitana	1:0

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