Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu (Samsun)

Referee: Barbu M. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
China	ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Disney+
France	Canal+ Live 8
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 9, Blue Sport 9
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 8
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	VIX App


	Samsunspor		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.1	2.1
	3	3.25	2.2
	3.7	3.15	2.08
	4.07	3.18	2.16
	3.79	3.17	2.14	Watch
	3.6	3	2.05
	3.8	3.14	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (2.86)	3.14 ↓ (3.42)	2.12 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samsunspor
25.6%

Draw
30%

Rayo Vallecano
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

27.8%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

28.7%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Samsunspor's form might have worsened.

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rayo Vallecano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Samsunspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.8%	29.2%	50%

Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Samsunspor will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 12 - 52.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 26.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 31.8% – 72.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Rayo Vallecano (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Rayo Vallecano (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Samsunspor (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Rayo Vallecano (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kocuk O. (G) 55. Cift Y. E. 37. Satka L. 4. Van Drongelen R. 17. Tomasson L. 29. Makoumbou A. 2. Mendes J. 5. Yuksel C. 10. Ntcham O. (C) 21. Holse C. 9. Marius	13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 5. Luiz Felipe 3. Chavarria P. 7. Palazon I. (C) 6. Ciss P. 17. Lopez U. 12. Akhomach I. 9. Alemao 18. Garcia A.
Substitutes
23. Albak E. 25. Atoen F. 24. Borevkovic T. 70. Coulibaly T. 71. Egribayat I. (G) 28. Gonul S. 11. Kilinc E. 19. Ndiaye C. 48. Toruz E. B. (G) 18. Yavru Z.	20. Balliu I. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 19. de Frutos J. 4. Diaz P. 15. Gumbau G. 32. Mendy N. 30. Molina A. (G) 22. Pacha 8. Trejo O. 23. Valentin O.
Coaches
Fink T.	Perez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Alemao ⚽, Palazon I. (A),
16', Holse C. 🟨,
21', 1 - 1, Marius ⚽, Holse C. (A),
38', Yuksel C. 🟨,
40', 1 - 2, Garcia A. ⚽, Palazon I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ntcham O. 🟨,
57', Luiz Felipe 🟨,
63', Mendes J. 🟨,
64', Makoumbou A. ↓, Kilinc E. ↑,
64', Cift Y. E. ↓, Coulibaly T. ↑,
64', Mendes J. ↓, Yavru Z. ↑,
75', Palazon I. ↓, Valentin O. ↑,
75', Lopez U. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
75', Akhomach I. 🟨,
75', Akhomach I. ↓, de Frutos J. ↑,
78', 1 - 3, Alemao ⚽, Valentin O. (A),
82', Marius ↓, Ndiaye C. ↑,
83', Garcia A. ↓, Pacha ↑,
87', Ciss P. ↓, Gumbau G. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Samsunspor has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Rayo Vallecano is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Samsunspor may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Rayo Vallecano might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Samsunspor: Assoumou J. (Injury) Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Diabbate A. B. (Inactive) Jarju S. (Inactive) Kayan Y. (Inactive) Kilinc E. (Inactive) Sousa A. (Ankle Injury) Tavsan E. (Inactive) Ustun E. (Inactive) Yavru Z. (Inactive)

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Martin C. (Inactive) Mendez D. (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
08.03.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	3:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.03.26	Antalyaspor - Samsunspor	0:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
01.03.26	Samsunspor - Gaziantep	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Samsunspor - Shkendija Tetovo	4:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
22.02.26	Fatih Karagümrükspor - Samsunspor	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWTWT
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
08.03.26	Sevilla - Rayo Vallecano	1:1 ✺
04.03.26	Rayo Vallecano - Real Oviedo	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Betis - Rayo Vallecano	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 TWTTW

Samsunspor - Rayo Vallecano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide