Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 29

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Israel	Sport 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2
Usa	Fanatiz
World	OneFootball TV


	Santos		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.90	1.71	Watch
	4.20	3.90	1.77
	4.35	3.85	1.72	Watch
	4.36	4.02	1.82
	3.96	4.02	1.83
	4.40	3.95	1.77
	4.19	3.96	1.82	Watch
	4.20	3.80	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.25 ↑ (4.16)	3.93 ↑ (3.66)	1.78 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Santos
22.3%

Draw
24.2%

Flamengo
53.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

25.6%

51.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

24.9%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	12.5%	81.2%

Santos - Flamengo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Santos (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Santos (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.67) (votes: 90%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Flamengo will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Flamengo (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diogenes (G) 23. Rodinei 4. Lucas Verissimo 15. Willian Arao 31. Escobar G. 8. Gabriel Bontempo 26. Oliva C. 48. Gustavo Henrique 22. Barreal A. 11. Coutinho 9. Gabriel Barbosa (C)	1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 13. Danilo 4. Leo Pereira (C) 26. Alex Sandro 5. Pulgar E. 21. Jorginho 15. Carrascal J. 11. Lucas Paqueta 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro
Substitutes
25. Gabriel Menino 18. Igor Vinicius 34. Joao Paulo (G) 5. Joao Schmidt 45. Lima 14. Luan Peres 30. Miguelito 10. Neymar 81. Pierri S. 32. Rollheiser B. 33. Rony 16. Thaciano	27. Bruno Henrique 51. Daniel Sales 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 30. Freitas J. 77. Goes J. 7. Luiz Araujo 8. Niguez S. 19. Plata G. 14. Valencia A. 44. Vitao
Coaches
Cuca	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', Escobar G. 🟨,
35', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
38', Barreal A. 🟨,
42', Pedro 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Danilo ⚽, Pedro (A),
45+4', 0 - 2, Lucas Paqueta ⚽, Carrascal J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Coutinho ↓, Neymar ↑,
46', Barreal A. ↓, Rony ↑,
53', Neymar 🟨,
56', Lucas Paqueta 🟨,
58', Oliva C. 🟨,
61', Rodinei 🟨,
66', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
70', Carrascal J. ↓, Plata G. ↑,
70', Lucas Paqueta ↓, Niguez S. ↑,
70', Escobar G. ↓, Luan Peres ↑,
79', Jorginho 🟥,
82', 1 - 2, Neymar (Penalty Awarded),
83', Pedro ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
83', Samuel Lino ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
86', Bruno Henrique 🟨,
87', 2 - 2, Neymar (Penalty Awarded),
90+2', Emerson Royal 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes the league leaders in an exciting contest (ranked 8th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 1st in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.

Santos has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Flamengo is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Flamengo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Flamengo carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Santos has recorded 7 wins, 1 draw, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:36 (averaging 1.4:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Santos against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 16:15 goals (averaging 1.8:1.7 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Flamengo RJ: 59.31% Santos: 0.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42

Last Results with these Odds

Santos - the odds 4.16 are the expected chance of winning is 22.52%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Flamengo - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 51.86%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
02.10.26	São Paulo - Santos	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Remo - Santos	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.09.26	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	5:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.09.26	Santos - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.09.26	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WWLWW
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
20.09.26	Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.09.26	Flamengo - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.26	Flamengo - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
10.09.26	Independiente del Valle - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.26	Remo - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Flamengo - Santos	3:1
09.11.25	Flamengo - Santos	3:2
16.07.25	Santos - Flamengo	1:0
01.11.23	Flamengo - Santos	1:2
25.06.23	Santos - Flamengo	2:3
25.10.22	Flamengo - Santos	3:2
02.07.22	Santos - Flamengo	1:2

Upcoming Matches