Match Info

Serie A - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia)

Referee: La Penna F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sassuolo		Lecce

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.7	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.65
	2.78	3.15	2.68	Watch
	2.81	3.25	2.78
	2.76	3.05	2.81	Watch
	2.7	3	2.6
	2.94	3.29	2.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.4)	3.18 ↑ (3.06)	2.7 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sassuolo
34.6%

Draw
30.1%

Lecce
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

31.1%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

30.8%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sassuolo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lecce's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sassuolo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lecce, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	40%	26.7%

Sassuolo - Lecce Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Sassuolo will win (votes: 10 - 33.3%). Lecce will win (votes: 8 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 22.5% – 57.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Sassuolo (1.81) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - Lecce (2.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Sassuolo (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Lecce (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Turati S. (G) 25. Coulibaly W. 66. Pedro Felipe 80. Muharemovic T. 23. Garcia U. 42. Thorstvedt K. 18. Matic N. 90. Kone I. 10. Berardi D. (C) 8. Nzola M. 45. Lauriente A.	30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 5. Siebert J. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 20. Ramadani Y. 79. Ngom O. 50. Pierotti S. 29. Coulibaly L. 19. Banda L. 99. Cheddira W.
Substitutes
50. Bakola D. 3. Doig J. 20. Fadera A. 33. Frangella C. 44. Iannoni E. 35. Lipani L. 31. Macchioni T. 24. Moro L. 49. Muric A. (G) 99. Pinamonti A. 12. Satalino G. (G) 7. Volpato C. 16. Zacchi G. (G)	22. Camarda F. 8. Fofana S. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 16. Gandelman O. 4. Gaspar K. 28. Gorter O. 14. Helgason T. J. 18. Jean G. 36. Marchwinski F. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 9. Stulic N.
Coaches
Grosso F.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Cheddira W. ⚽,
20', 1 - 1, Lauriente A. ⚽, Pedro Felipe (A),
25', 1 - 2, Cheddira W. ⚽, Banda L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Ramadani Y. 🟨,
63', Nzola M. ↓, Pinamonti A. ↑,
63', Matic N. ↓, Lipani L. ↑,
63', Banda L. ↓, Jean G. ↑,
72', Kone I. ↓, Bakola D. ↑,
72', Berardi D. ↓, Volpato C. ↑,
77', Muharemovic T. 🟨,
79', Pierotti S. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
80', Cheddira W. ↓, Camarda F. ↑,
81', Veiga D. 🟨,
82', 2 - 2, Pinamonti A. ⚽, Garcia U. (A),
85', Tiago Gabriel 🟨,
85', Ramadani Y. ↓, Stulic N. ↑,
85', Veiga D. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
88', Lauriente A. ↓, Frangella C. ↑,
90+1', Gallo A. 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 3, Stulic N. ⚽, Gandelman O. (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lecce may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sassuolo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Sassuolo: 0.25% Lecce: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9:9	0	7
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5:10	-5	6

Last Results with these Odds

Sassuolo - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 39.6%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie A
08.05.26	Torino - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Sassuolo - Milan	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Fiorentina - Sassuolo	0:0 ✺
17.04.26	Sassuolo - Como	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Genoa - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 LWTWL
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
09.05.26	Lecce - Juventus	0:1 ✺
01.05.26	Pisa - Lecce	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Verona - Lecce	0:0 ✺
20.04.26	Lecce - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Bologna - Lecce	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
18.10.25	Lecce - Sassuolo	0:0
Coppa Italia
24.09.24	Lecce - Sassuolo	0:2
Italian Serie A
21.04.24	Sassuolo - Lecce	0:3
06.10.23	Lecce - Sassuolo	1:1
25.02.23	Lecce - Sassuolo	0:1
20.08.22	Sassuolo - Lecce	1:0
04.07.20	Sassuolo - Lecce	4:2

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