Match Info

Serie A - Round 37

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia) 🌤️ ...

Referee: La Penna F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	20:45	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	15:45	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	22:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	04:45	beIN Connect
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	15:45	Disney+
Canada	14:45	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM, FuboTV
China	02:45	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	13:45	ESPN
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech Republic	20:45	Oneplay, Sport 2
Denmark	20:45	TV2 Play
Finland	21:45	MTV Katsomo+
France	20:45	DAZN France
Germany	20:45	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	21:45	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Iraq	21:45	Almanasa
Italy	20:45	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kuwait	21:45	Shasha
Malaysia	02:45	Astro Arena Bola 2
Mexico	12:45	Disney+
Netherlands	20:45	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	06:45	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	20:45	MaxTV GO
Norway	20:45	VG+
Peru	13:45	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 3, Eleven Sports 4
Romania	21:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	21:45	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	21:45	STC TV
Serbia	20:45	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	20:45	Voyo
South Korea	03:45	SPOTV Now
Spain	20:45	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:45	TV4 Play
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	01:45	True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	19:45	Diwan Sport
Turkey	21:45	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 9
United Kingdom	19:45	DAZN
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+
Vietnam	01:45	TV 360, VTVcab
International	18:45	Starzplay Sports app


	Sassuolo		Lecce

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.7	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.65
	2.78	3.15	2.68	Watch
	2.81	3.25	2.78
	2.76	3.05	2.81	Watch
	2.7	3	2.6
	2.94	3.29	2.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.4)	3.18 ↑ (3.06)	2.7 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sassuolo
34.6%

Draw
30.1%

Lecce
35.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.6%

31.1%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

30.9%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sassuolo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lecce's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sassuolo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lecce, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	40%	26.7%

Sassuolo - Lecce Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Sassuolo will win (votes: 10 - 33.3%). Lecce will win (votes: 8 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 22.5% – 57.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Sassuolo (1.81) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - Lecce (2.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Sassuolo (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Lecce (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Turati S. (G) 25. Coulibaly W. 66. Pedro Felipe 80. Muharemovic T. 23. Garcia U. 42. Thorstvedt K. 18. Matic N. 90. Kone I. 10. Berardi D. (C) 8. Nzola M. 45. Lauriente A.	30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 5. Siebert J. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 20. Ramadani Y. 79. Ngom O. 50. Pierotti S. 29. Coulibaly L. 19. Banda L. 99. Cheddira W.
Substitutes
50. Bakola D. 3. Doig J. 20. Fadera A. 33. Frangella C. 44. Iannoni E. 35. Lipani L. 31. Macchioni T. 24. Moro L. 49. Muric A. (G) 99. Pinamonti A. 12. Satalino G. (G) 7. Volpato C. 16. Zacchi G. (G)	22. Camarda F. 8. Fofana S. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 16. Gandelman O. 4. Gaspar K. 28. Gorter O. 14. Helgason T. J. 18. Jean G. 36. Marchwinski F. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 9. Stulic N.
Coaches
Grosso F.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Cheddira W. ⚽,
20', 1 - 1, Lauriente A. ⚽, Pedro Felipe (A),
25', 1 - 2, Cheddira W. ⚽, Banda L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Ramadani Y. 🟨,
63', Nzola M. ↓, Pinamonti A. ↑,
63', Matic N. ↓, Lipani L. ↑,
63', Banda L. ↓, Jean G. ↑,
72', Kone I. ↓, Bakola D. ↑,
72', Berardi D. ↓, Volpato C. ↑,
77', Muharemovic T. 🟨,
79', Pierotti S. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
80', Cheddira W. ↓, Camarda F. ↑,
81', Veiga D. 🟨,
82', 2 - 2, Pinamonti A. ⚽, Garcia U. (A),
85', Tiago Gabriel 🟨,
85', Ramadani Y. ↓, Stulic N. ↑,
85', Veiga D. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
88', Lauriente A. ↓, Frangella C. ↑,
90+1', Gallo A. 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 3, Stulic N. ⚽, Gandelman O. (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lecce may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:8. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sassuolo won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Lecce	9	3	0	6	10:19	-9	9
15	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	14:22	-8	8

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Sassuolo: 0.18% Lecce: 0.13%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie A
08.05.26	Torino - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Sassuolo - Milan	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Fiorentina - Sassuolo	0:0 ✺
17.04.26	Sassuolo - Como	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Genoa - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 LWTWL
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
09.05.26	Lecce - Juventus	0:1 ✺
01.05.26	Pisa - Lecce	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Verona - Lecce	0:0 ✺
20.04.26	Lecce - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Bologna - Lecce	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
18.10.25	Lecce - Sassuolo	0:0
Coppa Italia
24.09.24	Lecce - Sassuolo	0:2
Italian Serie A
21.04.24	Sassuolo - Lecce	0:3
06.10.23	Lecce - Sassuolo	1:1
25.02.23	Lecce - Sassuolo	0:1
20.08.22	Sassuolo - Lecce	1:0
04.07.20	Sassuolo - Lecce	4:2

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