Match Info

Serie A - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia)

Referee: Fourneau F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 1
Asia	Q League Asia, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Sport TV
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+, SportyNet
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Cambodia	MyTV
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 2 DRM
China	Migu
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	DAZN, TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Finland	DAZN, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
India	ZEE5
Indonesia	Vidio
Iraq	Almanasa
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 3, Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 3
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV, Thmanyah
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	DAZN, TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 3
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Universo, NBC, Paramount+, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2


	Sassuolo		Milan

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.6	1.85	Watch
	4.00	3.60	1.88
	4.05	3.55	1.88
	4.3	3.81	1.89
	4.29	3.78	1.88	Watch
	4.15	3.7	1.84
	4.28	3.9	1.91
	4.1	3.75	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↓ (4.3)	3.71 ↓ (3.76)	1.87 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sassuolo
23%

Draw
25.8%

Milan
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

25.3%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

27.4%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sassuolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Milan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milan than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Milan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	7.7%	84.6%

Sassuolo - Milan Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - AC Milan (1.91) (votes: 92%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: Milan will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 10th and 5th in the Promotion - Europa League League phase).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sassuolo won 1.

Sassuolo is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Milan have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Milan for this game.

Confirmed absences for Sassuolo: Idzes J. (Muscle Injury) Kone I. (Broken Leg) Paz Y. (Knee Injury) Pieragnolo E. (Knee Injury) Volpato C. (Thigh Injury).

Confirmed absences for Milan: Saelemaekers A. (Ankle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Sassuolo: Boloca D. (Muscle Injury) Cande F. (Knee Injury) Walukiewicz S. (Muscle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Sassuolo has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:36 (averaging 1.4:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sassuolo against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with 10:17 goals (averaging 1:1.7 per game).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AC Milan: 6.68% Sassuolo: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10:4	6	11
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9:9	0	7

Last Results with these Odds

Milan - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 52.57%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie A
18.09.26	Monza - Sassuolo	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Sassuolo - Juventus	3:2 ✺
06.09.26	Bologna - Sassuolo	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
02.09.26	Sassuolo - Frosinone	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
29.08.26	Sassuolo - Torino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 LWTWW
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
20.09.26	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.09.26	Milan - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
12.09.26	Lazio - Milan	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Juventus - Milan	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Milan - Venezia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
03.05.26	Sassuolo - Milan	2:0
14.12.25	Milan - Sassuolo	2:2
Coppa Italia
03.12.24	Milan - Sassuolo	6:1
Italian Serie A
14.04.24	Sassuolo - Milan	3:3
30.12.23	Milan - Sassuolo	1:0
29.01.23	Milan - Sassuolo	2:5
30.08.22	Sassuolo - Milan	0:0

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