Match Info

Super League - Round 33

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim (Padang)

Where to Watch on TV:


Indonesia	Indosiar, Vidio


	Semen Padang		Persebaya Surabaya

	1	X	2
				Watch
	14.5	6.7	1.12	Watch
	13.09	6.66	1.16
	14.47	6.49	1.18	Watch
	17	6	1.15
	17	6.95	1.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	15.21 ↑ (4.12)	6.56 ↑ (3.66)	1.14 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Semen Padang
6%

Draw
13.9%

Persebaya Surabaya
80.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.5%

25.4%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.8%

24.6%

53.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Semen Padang has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Semen Padang's form might have worsened.

Persebaya Surabaya has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+28%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Persebaya Surabaya's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Semen Padang than the current prediction. (+15.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Semen Padang, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Persebaya Surabaya than the current prediction. (-26.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Persebaya Surabaya, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Semen Padang - Persebaya Surabaya Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Semen Padang will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Persebaya will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Persebaya: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Persebaya (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
89. Bachtiar A. (G) 3. Kristiano A. 5. Gufron A. 8. Ariansyah R. (C) 12. Simanjuntak S. 63. Wahyudi R. 31. Setiawan R. 22. Botan K. 88. Maulana I. 15. Juliansyah F. 9. Guillermo	52. Ramadhani A. (G) 5. Mitrevski R. 2. Catur A. 17. Jefferson 44. Gustavo Fernandes 68. Firmansyah T. 7. Rivera F. 88. Raickovic M. 10. Bruno (C) 11. Perovic M. 14. Ardiansyah R.
Substitutes
25. Afandi Z. 26. Agong W. 120. Asri S. 113. Azhhari G. 13. Diego Mauricio 10. Froese K. 17. Maicon Souza 7. Nakagawa K. 86. Oropa A. 27. Oscario R. (G) 99. Putra F. (G) 121. Sentosa A.	33. Araya K. 21. Ari E. (G) 81. Baihaqi M. 83. Bruno Paraiba 8. Fernando O. 22. Freitas Gali 77. Malik R. 72. Maulana A. 18. May R. 78. Mujtaba A. 15. Tata M.
Coaches
Nahumarury I.	Tavares B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Rivera F. ⚽, Raickovic M. (A),
19', 0 - 2, Catur A. ⚽, Rivera F. (A),
45+3', Kristiano A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 5)
46', Juliansyah F. ↓, Froese K. ↑,
46', Botan K. ↓, Maicon Souza ↑,
46', Ardiansyah R. ↓, Araya K. ↑,
50', 0 - 3, Bruno ⚽, Rivera F. (A),
53', Maulana I. ↓, Nakagawa K. ↑,
61', Kristiano A. 🟨,
63', 0 - 4, Perovic M. ⚽, Jefferson (A),
65', Perovic M. ↓, Bruno Paraiba ↑,
66', Gufron A. 🟨,
67', 0 - 5, Bruno Paraiba (Penalty Awarded),
74', 0 - 6, Bruno Paraiba ⚽, Jefferson (A),
76', Rivera F. ↓, Freitas Gali ↑,
76', Firmansyah T. ↓, Baihaqi M. ↑,
76', Simanjuntak S. ↓, Azhhari G. ↑,
81', Nakagawa K. ↓, Afandi Z. ↑,
81', Catur A. ↓, Maulana A. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 7, Bruno Paraiba ⚽, Raickovic M. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 5).

Semen Padang is Relegated to

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Semen Padang won 0.

Semen Padang has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Persebaya is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Persebaya is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Persebaya will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Semen Padang won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Semen Padang won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Persebaya	4	2	2	0	4:2	2	8

Last Results with these Odds

Semen Padang - the odds 4.12 are the expected chance of winning is 22.52%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Semen Padang
Indonesian Super League
08.05.26	Semen Padang - Persik Kediri	0:3 ✺
03.05.26	Dewa United - Semen Padang	1:0 ✺
29.04.26	Semen Padang - Madura United	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Borneo Samarinda - Semen Padang	3:0 ✺
20.04.26	Semen Padang - Persijap Jepara	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Persebaya Surabaya
Indonesian Super League
09.05.26	Persis Solo - Persebaya Surabaya	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Persebaya Surabaya - PSBS Biak Numfor	4:0 ✺
28.04.26	Arema - Persebaya Surabaya	0:4 ✺
23.04.26	Java United - Persebaya Surabaya	0:2 ✺
17.04.26	Persebaya Surabaya - Madura United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Indonesian Super League
19.09.25	Persebaya Surabaya - Semen Padang	1:0
11.05.25	Persebaya Surabaya - Semen Padang	1:1
15.12.24	Semen Padang - Persebaya Surabaya	0:0
28.11.19	Persebaya Surabaya - Semen Padang	1:1
28.07.19	Semen Padang - Persebaya Surabaya	0:0

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