Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Pudong Football Stadium (Shanghai)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
China	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Russia	TV Start
South-korea	Coupang Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 2
World	Sport 1 Baltic, Sport 2 Baltic


	Shanghai Port		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	4.95	4.25	1.55
	5.2	4.58	1.55
	2.93	3.71	2.11	Watch
	4.69	4.39	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.44 ↑ (2.93)	4.23 ↑ (3.71)	1.71 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shanghai Port
21.5%

Draw
22.6%

Machida Zelvia
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

24.8%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

24.6%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shanghai Port has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shanghai Port's form might have worsened.

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Machida Zelvia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shanghai Port than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shanghai Port, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	5.6%	83.3%

Shanghai Port - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Shanghai Port (2.15) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.5 - Machida Zelvia (1.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Machida Zelvia will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Shanghai Port (votes: 4 - 50%). Machida Zelvia (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Chen Wei (G) 23. Fu Huan 3. Browning Tyias 13. Wei Zhen 29. Jojo A. C. 10. Mateus Vital 22. Matheus Jussa 14. Li Shenglong 21. Melendo O. 5. Zhang Linpeng (C) 49. Li X.	1. Tani K. (G) 5. Dresevic I. 3. Shoji G. (C) 19. Nakayama Y. 6. Mochizuki H. 16. Mae H. 18. Shimoda H. 11. Masuyama A. 15. Duke M. 7. Soma Y. 9. Fujio S.
Substitutes
27. Feng Jing 36. Haliq Ablahan 47. Kuai Jiwen 45. Leonardo 26. Liu Ruofan 11. Lu Wenjun 15. Ming Tian 4. Wang Shenchao 6. Xu Xin 20. Yang Shiyuan 1. Yan Junling (G) 40. Yusup Umidjan	44. Arai Y. (G) 28. Cha Je-Hoon 26. Hayashi K. 46. Higuchi K. 2. Imai T. 13. Morita T. (G) 10. Na Sang-Ho 22. Numata T. 90. Oh Se-Hun
Coaches
Muscat K.	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Fu Huan (Own goal),
25', 0 - 2, Soma Y. ⚽, Shimoda H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Browning Tyias ↓, Yusup Umidjan ↑,
46', Li Shenglong ↓, Kuai Jiwen ↑,
48', Soma Y. 🟨,
60', Li X. ↓, Liu Ruofan ↑,
60', Melendo O. ↓, Leonardo ↑,
66', Fujio S. ↓, Oh Se-Hun ↑,
66', Duke M. ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,
69', Masuyama A. ↓, Hayashi K. ↑,
76', Fu Huan ↓, Lu Wenjun ↑,
89', Matheus Jussa 🟨,
90', Shimoda H. ↓, Numata T. ↑,

Preview

Shanghai Port is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Machida Zelvia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Machida Zelvia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Machida Zelvia is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Machida Zelvia - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 43.69%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shanghai Port FC
Chinese Super League
17.10.25	Qingdao Hainiu - Shanghai Port	3:4 ✺
AFC Champions League
30.09.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shanghai Port	1:1 ✺
Chinese Super League
26.09.25	Shanghai Port - Wuhan Three Towns	3:2 ✺
21.09.25	Beijing Guoan - Shanghai Port	2:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.09.25	Shanghai Port - Vissel Kobe	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTWWL
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
18.10.25	Machida Zelvia - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Machida Zelvia	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
30.09.25	Johor Darul Takzim - Machida Zelvia	0:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
27.09.25	Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama	1:0 ✺
23.09.25	Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLTWT

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