Match Info

J1 League - Round 15

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: IAI Stadium Nihondaira (Shizuoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan
World	Onefootball


	Shimizu S-Pulse		Cerezo Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.25	2.57	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.65
	2.58	3.3	2.58	Watch
	2.7	3.55	2.68
	2.73	3.12	2.73	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.5
	2.67	3.3	2.67	Watch
	2.63	3.35	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 (2.63)	3.28 ↓ (3.35)	2.6 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shimizu S-Pulse
35.6%

Draw
28.5%

Cerezo Osaka
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

27.5%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

26.9%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shimizu S-Pulse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	50%	10%

Shimizu S Pulse - Cerezo Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Shimizu will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shimizu: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Cerezo Osaka (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerezo Osaka (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Umeda T. (G) 5. Kitazume K. 51. Sumiyoshi J. 25. Brunetti M. 28. Yoshida Y. 6. Uno Z. (C) 10. Matheus Bueno 47. Shimamoto Y. 38. Takahashi T. 9. Oh Se-Hun 11. Nakahara H.	21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (G) 27. Cools D. 4. Inoue R. 44. Hatanaka S. 66. Ohata A. 18. Ishiwatari N. 10. Tanaka S. (C) 48. Shibayama M. 8. Kagawa S. 14. Yokoyama Y. 9. Sakuragawa S.
Substitutes
29. Ahmedov A. 7. Capixaba 23. Chiba K. 4. Hasukawa S. 15. Honda Y. 81. Kozuka K. 97. Ohata R. 1. Oki Y. (G) 17. Yumiba M.	19. Homma S. 5. Kida H. 13. Nakajima M. 23. Nakamura K. (G) 16. Okuda H. 34. Osako R. 3. Tanaka H. 11. Thiago Andrade 7. Uejo S.
Coaches
Yoshida T.	Papas A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Tanaka S. ⚽, Ishiwatari N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Umeda T. ↓, Oki Y. ↑,
46', Nakahara H. ↓, Capixaba ↑,
62', Yoshida Y. ↓, Honda Y. ↑,
66', Shibayama M. ↓, Thiago Andrade ↑,
66', Cools D. ↓, Okuda H. ↑,
68', Takahashi T. ↓, Chiba K. ↑,
76', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Ahmedov A. ↑,
76', Yokoyama Y. ↓, Homma S. ↑,
76', Kagawa S. ↓, Nakajima M. ↑,
81', Sakuragawa S. ↓, Tanaka H. ↑,
88', Hatanaka S. 🟨,
90', 1 - 1, Matheus Bueno (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Ahmedov A. 🟨,
Penalties (5 - 3)
1, Matheus Bueno (Penalty Awarded),
1, Tanaka S. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Capixaba (Penalty Awarded),
2, Nakajima M. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Ahmedov A. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Hatanaka S. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Brunetti M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Thiago Andrade (Penalty Awarded),
5, Chiba K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 0.

Recent performances by Shimizu have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cerezo Osaka is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Shimizu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L. (Knee Injury) Sakata R. (Hamstring Injury) Takahashi T. (Back Injury) Yengi K. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shimizu won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 28:38. (average 1.4:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Shimizu won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.9:1.4).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Cerezo Osaka: 1.92% Shimizu S-Pulse: 0.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Cerezo Osaka	4	2	0	2	3:5	-2	6
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1:3	-2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan J1 League
02.05.26	Kyoto Sanga - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:2 ✺
29.04.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Nagoya Grampus	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:1 penalties ✺
05.04.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLLLW
- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
03.05.26	Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 penalties ✺
29.04.26	Vissel Kobe - Cerezo Osaka	0:1 penalties ✺
25.04.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Cerezo Osaka	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Cerezo Osaka - Kyoto Sanga	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
07.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 penalties
09.11.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Cerezo Osaka	1:4
01.06.25	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	4:2
26.06.22	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:1
12.03.22	Shimizu S-Pulse - Cerezo Osaka	1:3
04.12.21	Shimizu S-Pulse - Cerezo Osaka	2:1
10.03.21	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:1

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