Match Info

J1 League - Round 9

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	AbemaTV, DAZN Japan


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Shimizu S-Pulse

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.5	2.45	Watch
	2.62	3.35	2.48	Watch
	2.76	3.45	2.63
	2.67	3.44	2.58	Watch
	2.63	3.3	2.45
	2.66	3.4	2.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.66)	3.41 ↓ (3.52)	2.51 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
35.2%

Draw
27.5%

Shimizu S-Pulse
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

26.9%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

26.9%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Shimizu S-Pulse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

V Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S Pulse Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goto M. (G) 3. Sekiguchi M. 50. Shindo R. 6. Egawa Y. 23. Yoneda S. 5. Yamaguchi H. (C) 21. Diego Pituca 22. Onaga H. 41. Hasegawa M. 8. Iwasaki Y. 10. Matheus Jesus	16. Umeda T. (C) 25. Brunetti M. 14. Park Seung-Wook 51. Sumiyoshi J. 70. Takagi S. 6. Uno Z. 10. Matheus Bueno 47. Shimamoto Y. 5. Kitazume K. 9. Oh Se-Hun 8. Inoue K.
Substitutes
29. Arai I. 4. Dudu Giusti 13. Hatano G. (G) 33. Kasayanagi T. 34. Matsumoto T. 17. Takahata K. 48. Teruyama H. 24. Yamada R. 18. Yamasaki R.	4. Hasukawa S. 39. Hidaka H. 81. Kozuka K. 11. Nakahara H. 97. Ohata R. 1. Oki Y. (G) 50. Stephens A. 38. Takahashi T. 17. Yumiba M.
Coaches
Takagi T.	Yoshida T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
1', 0 - 1, Oh Se-Hun ⚽,
4', 0 - 2, Shimamoto Y. ⚽, Inoue K. (A),
45+3', 0 - 3, Oh Se-Hun (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Inoue K. ↓, Kozuka K. ↑,
46', Onaga H. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
46', Sekiguchi M. ↓, Dudu Giusti ↑,
73', Kitazume K. ↓, Hidaka H. ↑,
74', Shimamoto Y. ↓, Takahashi T. ↑,
77', Takagi S. ↓, Hasukawa S. ↑,
83', Diego Pituca ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
83', Yoneda S. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
89', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Stephens A. ↑,
90+3', Hasegawa M. ↓, Takahata K. ↑,
90+6', Sumiyoshi J. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

V-Varen Nagasaki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Nagura T. (Illness)

There will not play in Shimizu: Hasukawa S. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:9. (average 2.3:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1:3	-2	3
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4:9	-5	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League
21.03.26	Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Gamba Osaka - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2 ✺
28.02.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLWLW
- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan J1 League
01.04.26	Vissel Kobe - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:1 ✺
18.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:2 penalties ✺
14.03.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
07.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
07.09.24	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1
10.03.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-Pulse	4:1
01.07.23	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2
04.03.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:1
Japan J1 League
01.12.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Shimizu S-Pulse	4:4
11.04.18	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1
Japan J2 League
11.08.16	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0

Upcoming Matches