Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 29

Date: 28 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Greenhous Meadow (Shrewsbury)

Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)


	Shrewsbury Town		Forest Green Rovers

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.6
	2.15	3.1	3.5
	2.04	3.15	4.1
	2.15	3.1	3.4
	2.17	3.19	3.86
	2.1	3.1	3.7
	2.12	3.18	3.68	Watch
	2.13	3.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.88)	3.15 ↓ (3.46)	3.67 ↓ (3.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shrewsbury Town
44.3%

Draw
30%

Forest Green Rovers
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

26.9%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

24.5%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shrewsbury Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shrewsbury Town's form might have worsened.

Forest Green Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shrewsbury Town than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	5.6%	5.6%

Shrewsbury Town - Forest Green Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: Shrewsbury Town will win (16 of 18 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 9 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Shrewsbury has the most likely position - 11 (10.73%), has project points - 63, has currently - 38, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Forest Green has the most likely position - 24 (53.09%), has project points - 35, has currently - 21, has a good chance of relegated (93%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 13, small importance 14, small match rating 14. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Shrewsbury is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Forest Green has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Forest Green could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Shrewsbury is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Shrewsbury won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shrewsbury Town
English League One
24.01.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Shrewsbury Town	0:1 ✺
21.01.23	Shrewsbury Town - Cambridge United	5:1 ✺
14.01.23	Burton Albion - Shrewsbury Town	0:4 ✺
English FA Cup
07.01.23	Shrewsbury Town - Sunderland	1:2 ✺
English League One
01.01.23	Shrewsbury Town - Fleetwood Town	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWLL
- Forest Green Rovers
English League One
24.01.23	Bolton Wanderers - Forest Green Rovers	1:0 ✺
21.01.23	Forest Green Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
17.01.23	Forest Green Rovers - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
English League One
14.01.23	Exeter City - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
01.01.23	Forest Green Rovers - Port Vale	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
03.09.22	Forest Green Rovers - Shrewsbury Town	0:2

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