Match Info

ENGLAND: FA CUP - 1/32-FINALS

Date: 17 January 2023, Tuesday

Location: The New Lawn (Nailsworth)

Referee: Allison S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub
Denmark	Discovery+, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	Viaplay


	Forest Green Rovers		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.4	2	Watch
	3.7	3.2	1.95
	4	3.45	2
	3.75	3.3	1.99
	4.07	3.39	2.02
	3.7	3.2	1.95
	3.72	3.45	1.99	Watch
	3.75	3.3	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.81 ↓ (4.5)	3.34 ↓ (3.66)	1.99 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forest Green Rovers
24.6%

Draw
28.1%

Birmingham City
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.6%

25.4%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.9%

26.3%

55.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forest Green Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Birmingham City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Birmingham City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	7.9%	82.5%

Forest Green Rovers - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: Birmingham City will win (52 of 63 users predict this - 82.54%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.17% – 91.91%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Replayed if draw.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

In this match Birmingham is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Forest Green won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Forest Green won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forest Green Rovers
English League One
14.01.23	Exeter City - Forest Green Rovers	1:1 ✺
01.01.23	Forest Green Rovers - Port Vale	1:3 ✺
29.12.22	Forest Green Rovers - Burton Albion	1:2 ✺
26.12.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Forest Green Rovers	1:0 ✺
17.12.22	Derby County - Forest Green Rovers	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLLLL
- Birmingham City
English League Championship
14.01.23	Bristol City - Birmingham City	4:2 ✺
02.01.23	Birmingham City - Middlesbrough	1:3 ✺
30.12.22	Birmingham City - Hull City	0:1 ✺
27.12.22	Burnley - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
16.12.22	Birmingham City - Reading	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.07.16	Forest Green Rovers - Birmingham City	0:3
15.07.14	Forest Green Rovers - Birmingham City	0:1

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