Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 10

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio (Picerno) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Castellone D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Italy	17:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Sorrento		Casertana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.55	3.10	2.40
	2.70	3.05	2.30	Watch
	2.79	3.18	2.71
	2.67	3.17	2.52	Watch
	2.75	2.90	2.65
	2.62	2.91	2.52	Watch
	2.60	3.05	2.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.41)	3.05 ↓ (3.23)	2.53 ↓ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sorrento
34.1%

Draw
29.8%

Casertana
36%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.2%

28.5%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

28.8%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sorrento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Casertana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sorrento than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (-3%)

Sorrento - Casertana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Harrasser S. (G) 33. Viscardi A. 6. Fusco F. (C) 27. Loreto C. 2. Puzone M. 8. Cuccurullo M. 28. Capezzi L. 21. Potenza A. 3. Crecco L. 7. Starita E. 9. Parker S.	1. De Lucia V. (C) 23. Martino P. 33. Rocchi G. 11. Favale G. 18. Oukhadda S. 8. Girelli S. 16. Pezzella S. 21. Vezzoni F. 20. Bentivegna A. 9. Castelli D. 10. Manconi J.
Substitutes
4. Bacci J. 20. Bernabeo S. 48. Boccarusso J. (G) 19. Bolzan A. 31. Castaldi G. 79. Cataldo C. 13. Del Sorbo L. (G) 26. Di Somma V. 24. Evangelisti N. 11. Falasca M. 99. Marchesi F. 32. Paglino S. 10. Ricci F.	14. Ajayi J. 24. Belli F. 17. Caporale A. 19. Colley M. 32. Di Tacchio F. 4. Kontek I. 12. Luca S. (G) 22. Magro F. (G) 5. Mehic D. 7. Piovanello E. 27. Sandri M.
Coaches
Maiuri V.	Stellone R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Starita E. 🟨,
38', Oukhadda S. 🟨,
45', Parker S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Oukhadda S. ↓, Belli F. ↑,
64', Bentivegna A. ↓, Piovanello E. ↑,
64', Pezzella S. ↓, Di Tacchio F. ↑,
68', Starita E. ↓, Bolzan A. ↑,
69', Piovanello E. 🟨,
74', Castelli D. ↓, Ajayi J. ↑,
77', Puzone M. ↓, Paglino S. ↑,
77', Potenza A. ↓, Bacci J. ↑,
84', Loreto C. 🟨,
89', Parker S. ↓, Ricci F. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio.

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/8 - finals) and 5th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sorrento won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Casertana could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Sorrento has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:26 (averaging 0.7:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sorrento against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 5:6 goals (averaging 1:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Sorrento	11	6	2	3	15:11	4	20
9	Casertana	11	4	5	2	16:14	2	17

Last Results with these Odds

Sorrento - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.18%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sorrento FC
Italian Serie C Group C
11.10.26	Scafatese - Sorrento	3:2 ✺
03.10.26	Sorrento - Casarano	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Foggia - Sorrento	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Sorrento - Bari	1:2 ✺
15.09.26	Cavese - Sorrento	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLLW
- FC Casertana
Italian Serie C Group C
10.10.26	Casertana - Monopoli	3:1 ✺
03.10.26	Cavese - Casertana	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Casertana - Catania	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Audace Cerignola - Casertana	0:0 ✺
15.09.26	Casertana - Altamura	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
30.03.26	Casertana - Sorrento	2:0
22.11.25	Sorrento - Casertana	1:2
16.03.25	Casertana - Sorrento	4:0
04.11.24	Sorrento - Casertana	1:1
27.04.24	Casertana - Sorrento	5:2
23.12.23	Sorrento - Casertana	1:1
Italian Serie D - Group G
06.04.23	Casertana - Sorrento	3:0

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