Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 24

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani (Potenza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
World	Onefootball


	Sorrento		Catania

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.9	3.6	1.55
	7.52	3.75	1.5
	6.89	3.63	1.5	Watch
	6	3.3	1.5
	7.24	3.42	1.49	Watch
	7.5	3.66	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.84 ↑ (5.15)	3.56 ↑ (3.5)	1.5 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sorrento
13.4%

Draw
25.7%

Catania
60.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.9%

26.3%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.1%

25.2%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sorrento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Catania has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Catania's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sorrento than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catania than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Sorrento - Catania Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Del Sorbo L. (G) 3. Crecco L. 8. Cuccurullo M. 11. Esposito M. 15. Solcia D. 16. Ricci F. 26. Di Somma V. 28. Capezzi L. 32. Paglino S. 46. Colombini L. 90. Sabbatani A.	57. Dini A. (G) 3. Celli A. 29. Cargnelutti R. 5. Miceli M. 19. Raimo A. 16. Quaini A. 30. Corbari A. 99. D'Ausilio M. 7. Jimenez K. 23. Lunetta G. 32. Forte F.
Substitutes
20. Bernabeo S. 23. Cangianiello S. 31. D'Aniello A. (G) 22. Harrasser S. (G) 21. Matera A. 85. Milan M. 4. Potenza A. 17. Riccardi P. 5. Shaw K. 18. Tonni M. 30. Vilardi M.	6. Allegretto A. 1. Bethers K. (G) 17. Bruzzaniti G. 18. Caturano S. 47. Di Noia G. 20. Donnarumma D. 68. Ierardi M. 73. Pieraccini S. 15. Ponsi F. 9. Rolfini A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Forte F. ⚽,
13', 1 - 1, Sabbatani A. ⚽,
26', 2 - 1, Crecco L. ⚽,
30', Miceli M. 🟨,
42', Solcia D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Corbari A. ↓, Di Noia G. ↑,
59', Jimenez K. ↓, Bruzzaniti G. ↑,
59', Raimo A. ↓, Donnarumma D. ↑,
61', Miceli M. ↓, Ierardi M. ↑,
69', Lunetta G. ↓, Caturano S. ↑,
75', Esposito M. ↓, Potenza A. ↑,
79', Paglino S. ↓, Shaw K. ↑,
79', Solcia D. ↓, Tonni M. ↑,
82', 🟨,
87', 🟨,
90', 3 - 1, Ricci F. ⚽,
90+7', Sabbatani A. ↓, Bernabeo S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sorrento won 2.

Sorrento has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Catania is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Catania is the team to beat.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Sorrento won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sorrento won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Sorrento	8	6	0	2	12:7	5	18
6	Catania	8	4	1	3	14:10	4	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sorrento FC
Italian Serie C Group C
25.01.26	Sorrento - Salernitana	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Trapani - Sorrento	4:0 ✺
10.01.26	Sorrento - Foggia	2:1 ✺
03.01.26	Cavese - Sorrento	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Sorrento - Picerno	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLWLT
- Calcio Catania
Italian Serie C Group C
25.01.26	Catania - Nuova Cosenza	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Monopoli - Catania	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Catania - Cavese	2:0 ✺
04.01.26	Foggia - Catania	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Catania - Atalanta U23	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
20.09.25	Catania - Sorrento	0:0
22.12.24	Catania - Sorrento	4:0
24.08.24	Sorrento - Catania	0:0
21.04.24	Sorrento - Catania	3:2
18.12.23	Catania - Sorrento	0:1
Italian Serie D - Group A
14.05.23	Catania - Sorrento	0:2

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