Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 20

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Attwell S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Showmax, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga
Armenia	19:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Australia	02:00	Optus Sport
Austria	16:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Brazil	12:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	17:00	Nova Sport
Cambodia	22:00	True Sport 2
Canada	10:00	fubo Sports Network 6 DRM
China	23:00	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	16:00	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	17:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech Republic	16:00	CANAL+ Sport 7
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Finland	17:00	Viaplay
France	16:00	Canal+ Live 9
Germany	16:00	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 3, WOW
Greece	17:00	Nova Sports Start
Hong Kong	23:00	M Plus Live, Now E, Now Player, NOW Premier League 5
Iceland	15:00	Siminn Sport
India	20:30	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	22:00	Vidio
Italy	16:00	NOW TV, Sky Sport 259
Japan	00:00	U-NEXT
Laos	22:00	True Sport 2
Malaysia	23:00	Astro Go, SKY NET Sports 1
Malta	16:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	09:00	Amazon Prime Video, Fox Sports
Mongolia	23:00	Premier Sports 5
Montenegro	16:00	Arena Sport 4
Netherlands	16:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	04:00	Sky Sport 4, TVWan
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	16:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 4
Poland	16:00	Viaplay
Portugal	15:00	DAZN 5
Romania	17:00	Orange TV Go
Singapore	23:00	StarHub TV+
Slovenia	16:00	Arena Sport 2
South Africa	17:00	SuperSport La Liga
South Korea	00:00	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime+
Spain	16:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay
Thailand	22:00	True Sport 2
Turkey	18:00	beIN Connect
Usa	10:00	Peacock TV, SiriusXM FC
Vietnam	22:00	ON Plus
International	15:00	Disney+, JioTV app


	Southampton		Brentford

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.6	2.2
	3.1	3.6	2.2
	3.15	3.7	2.25	Watch
	2.7	3.75	2.59
	3.14	3.68	2.26	Watch
	3.2	3.5	2.2
	3.28	3.67	2.23	Watch
	3.15	3.7	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.73)	3.65 ↑ (3.61)	2.27 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
31%

Draw
26.5%

Brentford
42.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35%

26.4%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

25.9%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Brentford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	20%	57.8%

Southampton - Brentford Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. S`hampton will win (votes: 10 - 22.2%). Brentford will win (votes: 26 - 57.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brentford: 43.4% – 72.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Ramsdale A. (G) 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 35. Bednarek J. (C) 15. Wood N. 14. Bree J. 26. Ugochukwu L. 7. Aribo J. 2. Walker-Peters K. 33. Dibling T. 32. Onuachu P. 20. Sulemana K.	1. Flekken M. (G) 30. Roerslev Rasmussen M. 22. Collins N. 4. van den Berg S. 23. Lewis-Potter K. 8. Jensen M. 6. Norgaard C. (C) 24. Damsgaard M. 19. Mbeumo B. 11. Wissa Y. 7. Schade K.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 9. Armstrong A. 37. Bella-Kotchap A. 17. Brereton Diaz B. 10. Lallana A. 3. Manning R. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 16. Sugawara Y. 21. Taylor C.	43. Arthur B. 27. Janelt V. 36. Kim Ji-Soo 26. Konak Y. E. 32. Maghoma P. 21. Meghoma J. 12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G) 18. Yarmolyuk Y. 42. Yogane T.
Coaches
Juric I.	Frank T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Schade K. ⚽, Damsgaard M. (A),
22', Walker-Peters K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Wood N. ↓, Taylor C. ↑,
46', Bree J. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
55', Onuachu P. ↓, Armstrong A. ↑,
55', Sulemana K. ↓, Archer C. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Mbeumo B. ⚽, Wissa Y. (A),
64', Harwood-Bellis T. 🟨,
69', 0 - 3, Mbeumo B. (Pen),
71', Jensen M. ↓, Janelt V. ↑,
81', Schade K. ↓, Maghoma P. ↑,
81', Norgaard C. ↓, Yarmolyuk Y. ↑,
87', Aribo J. ↓, Lallana A. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 4, Lewis-Potter K. ⚽, Mbeumo B. (A),
90+4', 0 - 5, Wissa Y. ⚽,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 1.

In the last matches we may see a scene of defeats of two teams.

S`hampton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in S`hampton: Bazunu G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Fernandes M. (Yellow Cards) Smallbone W. (Thigh Injury) Stephens J. (Knock) Stewart R. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Brentford: Ajer K. (Ankle Injury) Carvalho F. (Groin Injury) Dasilva J. (Knee Injury) Gustavo Nunes (Back Injury) Henry R. (Knee Injury) Hickey A. (Hamstring Injury) Mee B. (Injury) Pinnock E. (Thigh Injury) Thiago I. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Downes F. (Thigh Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7:16 (average 1:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:5 (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English Premier League
29.12.24	Crystal Palace - Southampton	2:1 ✺
26.12.24	Southampton - West Ham United	0:1 ✺
22.12.24	Fulham - Southampton	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
18.12.24	Southampton - Liverpool	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
15.12.24	Southampton - Tottenham Hotspur	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLTLL
- Brentford FC
English Premier League
01.01.25	Brentford - Arsenal	1:3 ✺
27.12.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Brentford	0:0 ✺
21.12.24	Brentford - Nottingham Forest	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
18.12.24	Newcastle United - Brentford	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
15.12.24	Chelsea - Brentford	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
31.08.24	Brentford - Southampton	3:1
15.03.23	Southampton - Brentford	0:2
04.02.23	Brentford - Southampton	3:0
07.05.22	Brentford - Southampton	3:0
11.01.22	Southampton - Brentford	4:1
English League Cup
16.09.20	Southampton - Brentford	0:2
Club Friendly
22.07.17	Brentford - Southampton	2:2

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