Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL Cup - Quarter-finals

Date: 18 December 2024, Wednesday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Hooper S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Southampton		Liverpool

	1	X	2
	5	4.75	1.55	Watch
	5.5	4.6	1.52
	5.5	4.5	1.57	Watch
	5.64	4.8	1.56
	5.65	4.49	1.57	Watch
	5.5	4.4	1.53
	5.29	4.74	1.57	Watch
	5.5	4.5	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.45 ↓ (8.15)	4.6 ↓ (5.83)	1.56 ↑ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
17.6%

Draw
20.8%

Liverpool
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.7%

16.3%

72%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.4%

15.9%

73.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Southampton's performance.

Liverpool has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Liverpool might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Southampton that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Liverpool could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	10.7%	82.1%

Southampton - Liverpool Predictions

Users Predictions: Liverpool will win (23 of 26 users predict this - 88.46%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.18% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McCarthy A. (C) 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 15. Wood N. 35. Bednarek J. 14. Bree J. 7. Aribo J. 4. Downes F. 18. Fernandes M. 3. Manning R. 33. Dibling T. 19. Archer C.	62. Kelleher C. (G) 66. Alexander-Arnold T. (C) 78. Quansah J. 3. Endo W. 2. Gomez J. 98. Nyoni T. 80. Morton T. 19. Elliott H. 10. Mac Allister A. 18. Gakpo C. 9. Nunez D.
Substitutes
27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 17. Brereton Diaz B. 12. Edwards R. 24. Fraser R. 10. Lallana A. 13. Lumley J. (G) 32. Onuachu P. 16. Sugawara Y. 20. Sulemana K.	14. Chiesa F. 76. Danns J. 20. Diogo Jota 56. Jaros V. (G) 53. McConnell J. 65. Nallo A. 73. Ngumoha R. 77. Norris J. 21. Tsimikas K.
Coaches
Rusk S.	Slot A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
24', 0 - 1, Nunez D. ⚽,
32', 0 - 2, Elliott H. ⚽, Gakpo C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Chiesa F. ↑,
46', Gomez J. ↓, Tsimikas K. ↑,
57', Downes F. 🟨,
57', Elliott H. 🟨,
59', 1 - 2, Archer C. ⚽,
61', Bree J. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
63', Gakpo C. ↓, Diogo Jota ↑,
63', Mac Allister A. ↓, McConnell J. ↑,
73', Downes F. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
73', Archer C. ↓, Onuachu P. ↑,
84', Aribo J. ↓, Lallana A. ↑,
84', Bednarek J. ↓, Brereton Diaz B. ↑,
86', Nyoni T. ↓, Danns J. ↑,
90', McConnell J. 🟨,
90+4', Brereton Diaz B. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 0.

S`hampton has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Liverpool is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

S`hampton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Liverpool is a favorite.

There will not play in S`hampton: Bazunu G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Larios J. (Injury) Smallbone W. (Thigh Injury) Stephens J. (Red Card) Stewart R. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Liverpool: Bradley C. (Muscle Injury) Konate I. (Knee Injury) Robertson A. (Red Card) Tsimikas K. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Ramsdale A. (Finger Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 17:46 (average 0.9:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 15:24 (average 1.4:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English Premier League
15.12.24	Southampton - Tottenham Hotspur	0:5 ✺
07.12.24	Aston Villa - Southampton	1:0 ✺
04.12.24	Southampton - Chelsea	1:5 ✺
29.11.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Southampton	1:1 ✺
24.11.24	Southampton - Liverpool	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLLTL
- Liverpool FC
English Premier League
14.12.24	Liverpool - Fulham	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.24	Girona - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
04.12.24	Newcastle United - Liverpool	3:3 ✺
01.12.24	Liverpool - Manchester City	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
27.11.24	Liverpool - Real Madrid	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
24.11.24	Southampton - Liverpool	2:3
English FA Cup
28.02.24	Liverpool - Southampton	3:0
English Premier League
28.05.23	Southampton - Liverpool	4:4
12.11.22	Liverpool - Southampton	3:1
17.05.22	Southampton - Liverpool	1:2
27.11.21	Liverpool - Southampton	4:0
08.05.21	Liverpool - Southampton	2:0

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