Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 16

Date: 15 December 2024, Sunday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: England D. (Eng)

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	Southampton		Tottenham Hotspur

	1	X	2
	3.9	4.33	1.8
	4	4.5	1.75
	3.8	4.55	1.82
	3.97	4.41	1.81
	3.94	4.38	1.83	Watch
	3.7	4.33	1.8
	3.81	4.59	1.83	Watch
	3.8	4.55	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↓ (4.81)	4.46 (4.46)	1.81 ↑ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
25%

Draw
21.7%

Tottenham Hotspur
53.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20%

21.6%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.8%

21.8%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Tottenham Hotspur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Southampton that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tottenham Hotspur than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tottenham Hotspur could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.9%	17.6%	67.6%

Southampton - Tottenham Hotspur Predictions

Users Predictions: 74 users predict this event. S`hampton will win (votes: 11 - 14.9%). Tottenham will win (votes: 50 - 67.6%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tottenham: 56.9% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McCarthy A. (G) 2. Walker-Peters K. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 35. Bednarek J. 3. Manning R. 7. Aribo J. 4. Downes F. 18. Fernandes M. 33. Dibling T. 9. Armstrong A. (C) 20. Sulemana K.	20. Forster F. (G) 24. Spence D. 6. Dragusin R. 14. Gray A. 13. Udogie D. 29. Sarr P. M. 15. Bergvall L. 21. Kulusevski D. 10. Maddison J. 7. Son Heung-Min (C) 19. Solanke D.
Substitutes
27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 19. Archer C. 14. Bree J. 24. Fraser R. 10. Lallana A. 13. Lumley J. (G) 32. Onuachu P. 16. Sugawara Y. 15. Wood N.	40. Austin B. (G) 48. Dorrington A. 79. Hardy M. 22. Johnson B. 3. King M. 42. Lankshear W. 64. Olusesi C. 23. Porro P. 16. Werner T.
Coaches
Martin R.	Postecoglou A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 5)
1', 0 - 1, Maddison J. ⚽, Spence D. (A),
12', 0 - 2, Son Heung-Min ⚽,
14', 0 - 3, Kulusevski D. ⚽,
15', Sulemana K. ↓, Wood N. ↑,
25', 0 - 4, Sarr P. M. ⚽, Son Heung-Min (A),
28', Udogie D. ↓, Porro P. ↑,
30', Bergvall L. 🟨,
36', Fernandes M. 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 5, Maddison J. ⚽, Son Heung-Min (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Son Heung-Min ↓, Johnson B. ↑,
50', Maddison J. 🟨,
58', Johnson B. 🟨,
62', Manning R. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
77', Spence D. ↓, Dorrington A. ↑,
77', Maddison J. ↓, Werner T. ↑,
82', Armstrong A. ↓, Archer C. ↑,
82', Solanke D. ↓, Lankshear W. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 1.

S`hampton has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Tottenham is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

S`hampton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Tottenham is a favorite.

There will not play in S`hampton: Bazunu G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lallana A. (Thigh Injury) Larios J. (Injury) Smallbone W. (Thigh Injury) Stephens J. (Red Card) Stewart R. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Tottenham: Bentancur R. (Suspended) Bissouma Y. (Yellow Cards) Davies B. (Thigh Injury) Odobert W. (Thigh Injury) Richarlison (Thigh Injury) Romero C. (Ankle Injury) Vicario G. (Broken ankle) van de Ven M. (Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Ramsdale A. (Finger Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 28:45 (average 1.4:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:20 (average 1.4:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English Premier League
07.12.24	Aston Villa - Southampton	1:0 ✺
04.12.24	Southampton - Chelsea	1:5 ✺
29.11.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Southampton	1:1 ✺
24.11.24	Southampton - Liverpool	2:3 ✺
09.11.24	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Southampton	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLTLL
- Tottenham Hotspur
UEFA Europa League
12.12.24	Glasgow Rangers - Tottenham Hotspur	1:1 ✺
English Premier League
08.12.24	Tottenham Hotspur - Chelsea	3:4 ✺
05.12.24	Bournemouth - Tottenham Hotspur	1:0 ✺
01.12.24	Tottenham Hotspur - Fulham	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.11.24	Tottenham Hotspur - Roma	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
18.03.23	Southampton - Tottenham Hotspur	3:3
06.08.22	Tottenham Hotspur - Southampton	4:1
09.02.22	Tottenham Hotspur - Southampton	2:3
28.12.21	Southampton - Tottenham Hotspur	1:1
21.04.21	Tottenham Hotspur - Southampton	2:1
20.09.20	Southampton - Tottenham Hotspur	2:5
English FA Cup
05.02.20	Tottenham Hotspur - Southampton	3:2

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