Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 23

Date: 25 January 2025, Saturday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Southampton		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.75	1.45
	6.25	4.8	1.46
	7	5.1	1.45
	6.92	5.09	1.46
	6.59	4.92	1.48	Watch
	6	4.6	1.44
	6.72	4.99	1.48	Watch
	7	5.1	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.59 ↓ (6.71)	4.92 ↓ (4.98)	1.46 ↑ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
14.6%

Draw
19.5%

Newcastle United
65.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.4%

19.4%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.9%

18.7%

68.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17%	9.4%	73.6%

Southampton - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. S`hampton will win (votes: 8 - 15.7%). Newcastle will win (votes: 39 - 76.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 7.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 64.9% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McCarthy A. (G) 14. Bree J. 35. Bednarek J. (C) 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 2. Walker-Peters K. 26. Ugochukwu L. 7. Aribo J. 3. Manning R. 18. Fernandes M. 32. Onuachu P. 9. Armstrong A.	1. Dubravka M. (G) 21. Livramento V. 5. Schar F. 33. Burn D. 20. Hall L. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 23. Murphy J. 14. Isak A. 10. Gordon A.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 37. Bella-Kotchap A. 4. Downes F. 24. Fraser R. 10. Lallana A. 13. Lumley J. (G) 8. Smallbone W. 16. Sugawara Y. 15. Wood N.	24. Almiron M. 4. Botman S. 25. Kelly L. 36. Longstaff S. 67. Miley L. 18. Osula W. 22. Pope N. (G) 16. Trippier K. 28. Willock J.
Coaches
Juric I.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
10', 1 - 0, Bednarek J. ⚽, Bree J. (A),
21', Fernandes M. 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Isak A. (Pen),
30', 1 - 2, Isak A. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 1 - 3, Tonali S. ⚽, Gordon A. (A),
60', Armstrong A. ↓, Archer C. ↑,
60', Manning R. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
79', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Miley L. ↑,
79', Isak A. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
80', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Smallbone W. ↑,
88', Gordon A. ↓, Almiron M. ↑,
88', Bree J. ↓, Fraser R. ↑,
89', Aribo J. ↓, Lallana A. ↑,
90+2', Murphy J. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 0.

S`hampton is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Newcastle is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Newcastle is absolute favorite.

There will not play in S`hampton: Dibling T. (Ankle Injury) Gronbaek A. (Coach's decision) Stephens J. (Knock) Stewart R. (Thigh Injury) Sulemana K. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Barnes H. (Thigh Injury) Lascelles J. (Knee Injury) Pope N. (Knee Injury) Wilson C. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Ramsdale A. (Lacking Match Fitness)

Last 20 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 29:33 (average 1.5:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17:11 (average 1.7:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English Premier League
19.01.25	Nottingham Forest - Southampton	3:2 ✺
16.01.25	Manchester United - Southampton	3:1 ✺
English FA Cup
12.01.25	Southampton - Swansea City	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
04.01.25	Southampton - Brentford	0:5 ✺
29.12.24	Crystal Palace - Southampton	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLWLL
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
18.01.25	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:4 ✺
15.01.25	Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	3:0 ✺
English FA Cup
12.01.25	Newcastle United - Bromley	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
07.01.25	Arsenal - Newcastle United	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
04.01.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Newcastle United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
17.08.24	Newcastle United - Southampton	1:0
30.04.23	Newcastle United - Southampton	3:1
English League Cup
31.01.23	Newcastle United - Southampton	2:1
24.01.23	Southampton - Newcastle United	0:1
English Premier League
06.11.22	Southampton - Newcastle United	1:4
10.03.22	Southampton - Newcastle United	1:2
28.08.21	Newcastle United - Southampton	2:2

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