Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2024, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Bond D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Showmax, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 1
Argentina	12:00	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	02:00	Optus Sport
Austria	16:00	Sky Go Austria
Belgium	16:00	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	16:00	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	12:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	17:00	Nova Sport, Ring, Voyo
Canada	10:00	fubo Sports Network 4 DRM
Chile	12:00	Disney+
China	23:00	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	10:00	Disney+
Croatia	16:00	Arena Sport 3, Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	17:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech Republic	16:00	CANAL+ Sport 4
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Finland	17:00	Viaplay, V Sport 1
France	16:00	Canal+ Live 4
Germany	16:00	Sky Sport Mix
Greece	17:00	Nova Sports 2
Hong Kong	23:00	Now E, Now Player, NOW Premier League 2
Hungary	16:00	Match 4
Iceland	15:00	Siminn Sport 3
India	20:30	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	22:00	Vidio
Japan	00:00	U-NEXT
Malaysia	23:00	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 3, SKY NET Sports 2, Sooka
Malta	16:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	09:00	Amazon Prime Video, FOX Sports 2
Mongolia	23:00	Premier Sports 1
Montenegro	16:00	Arena Sport 4
Netherlands	16:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	04:00	Sky Sport 7
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
North Macedonia	16:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 2
Peru	10:00	Disney+
Poland	16:00	Viaplay
Portugal	15:00	DAZN 3
Romania	17:00	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Singapore	23:00	Hub Premier 3, StarHub TV+
South Korea	00:00	SPOTV Prime+
Spain	16:00	DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Thailand	22:00	True Premier Football 4
Turkey	18:00	beIN Connect
Uruguay	12:00	Disney+
Usa	10:00	Peacock TV Premium, Peacock TV
Venezuela	11:00	Disney+
Vietnam	22:00	ON Plus
International	15:00	Disney+, JioTV app


	Aston Villa		Southampton

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.5	8.5
	1.35	5.5	8.5
	1.34	5.7	9.2	Watch
	1.36	5.6	8.8
	1.37	5.29	8.95	Watch
	1.33	5.5	8.5
	1.36	5.65	8.85	Watch
	1.34	5.7	9.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.4)	5.43 ↑ (5.11)	8.81 ↑ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
71.3%

Draw
17.8%

Southampton
10.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.5%

18.7%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.5%

17.6%

13.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aston Villa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.2%	7.7%	5.1%

Aston Villa - Southampton Predictions

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (32 of 36 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.62% – 99.16%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 4. Konsa E. 3. Diego Carlos 14. Torres P. 22. Maatsen I. 44. Kamara B. 8. Tielemans Y. 31. Bailey L. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 9. Duran J.	13. Lumley J. (G) 14. Bree J. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 15. Wood N. 3. Manning R. 2. Walker-Peters K. 33. Dibling T. 4. Downes F. 18. Fernandes M. 9. Armstrong A. (C) 19. Archer C.
Substitutes
6. Barkley R. 10. Buendia E. 2. Cash M. 12. Digne L. 5. Mings T. 25. Olsen R. (G) 24. Onana A. 19. Philogene J. 11. Watkins O.	27. Amo-Ameyaw S. 7. Aribo J. 17. Brereton Diaz B. 12. Edwards R. 24. Fraser R. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 16. Sugawara Y. 20. Sulemana K. 21. Taylor C.
Coaches
Emery U.	Martin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Duran J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bree J. ↓, Aribo J. ↑,
58', Duran J. ↓, Watkins O. ↑,
58', Maatsen I. ↓, Digne L. ↑,
59', Tielemans Y. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
59', Bailey L. ↓, Philogene J. ↑,
69', Downes F. 🟨,
73', Archer C. ↓, Amo-Ameyaw S. ↑,
79', Wood N. 🟨,
79', Downes F. ↓, Brereton Diaz B. ↑,
86', Amo-Ameyaw S. 🟨,
90+1', Manning R. ↓, Sulemana K. ↑,
90+6', Rogers M. 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 8 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aston Villa won 4.

Recent matches Aston Villa is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

S`hampton is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aston Villa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Aston Villa is absolute favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Ramsey J. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in S`hampton: Bazunu G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lallana A. (Thigh Injury) Larios J. (Injury) Ramsdale A. (Finger Injury) Smallbone W. (Thigh Injury) Stephens J. (Red Card) Stewart R. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Onana A. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Bednarek J. (Knee Injury) Onuachu P. (Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Aston Villa won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 21:31 (average 1.2:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Aston Villa won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12:13 (average 1.5:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
04.12.24	Aston Villa - Brentford	3:1 ✺
01.12.24	Chelsea - Aston Villa	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
27.11.24	Aston Villa - Juventus	0:0 ✺
English Premier League
23.11.24	Aston Villa - Crystal Palace	2:2 ✺
09.11.24	Liverpool - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLTTL
- Southampton FC
English Premier League
04.12.24	Southampton - Chelsea	1:5 ✺
29.11.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Southampton	1:1 ✺
24.11.24	Southampton - Liverpool	2:3 ✺
09.11.24	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Southampton	2:0 ✺
02.11.24	Southampton - Everton	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
21.01.23	Southampton - Aston Villa	0:1
16.09.22	Aston Villa - Southampton	1:0
05.03.22	Aston Villa - Southampton	4:0
05.11.21	Southampton - Aston Villa	1:0
30.01.21	Southampton - Aston Villa	0:1
01.11.20	Aston Villa - Southampton	3:4
22.02.20	Southampton - Aston Villa	2:0

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