Match Info

Serie B - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Fourneau F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	LAB Channel


	Modena		Juve Stabia

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.5	Watch
	2.18	2.98	3.5	Watch
	2.32	3.01	3.79
	2.22	2.93	3.68	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.4
	2.31	3	3.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.2)	2.97 ↑ (2.85)	3.6 ↓ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
42.1%

Draw
31.7%

Juve Stabia
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

32.8%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

33.3%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Juve Stabia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Modena than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juve Stabia than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	58.3%	8.3%

Modena - Juve Stabia Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Juve Stabia will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pezzolato M. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 19. Nador S. 20. Nieling B. 7. Zampano F. 17. Massolin Y. 8. Santoro S. (C) 5. Sersanti A. 29. Cotali M. 10. Ambrosino G. 99. De Luca M.	1. Confente A. (G) 46. Diakite S. 33. Giorgini A. 6. Bellich M. (C) 24. Carissoni L. 98. Mosti N. 55. Leone G. 29. Correia O. 77. Cacciamani A. 37. Maistro F. 90. Okoro A.
Substitutes
28. Adorni D. 78. Bagheria F. (G) 2. Beyuku G. 92. Defrel G. 25. Dellavalle A. 9. Gliozzi E. 90. Imputato A. 13. Laidani A. (G) 11. Mendes P. 18. Pyyhtia N. 71. Wiafe S. 98. Zanimacchia L.	23. Boer P. (G) 7. Burnete R. 27. Candellone L. 17. Ciammaglichella A. 14. Dalle Mura C. 9. Gabrielloni A. 21. Kassama S. 76. Mannini M. 10. Pierobon C. 2. Ricciardi M. 28. Torrasi E. 8. Zeroli K.
Coaches
Sottil A.	Abate I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Diakite S. 🟨,
14', Nador S. 🟨,
45', De Luca M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', Sersanti A. 🟨,
63', Carissoni L. ↓, Ricciardi M. ↑,
63', Maistro F. ↓, Burnete R. ↑,
68', De Luca M. ↓, Gliozzi E. ↑,
69', Sersanti A. ↓, Pyyhtia N. ↑,
74', Sottil A. 🟨,
75', Cotali M. ↓, Beyuku G. ↑,
78', Mosti N. ↓, Pierobon C. ↑,
78', Leone G. ↓, Zeroli K. ↑,
84', Okoro A. ↓, Gabrielloni A. ↑,
86', 0 - 1, Zeroli K. ⚽,
89', Ambrosino G. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
89', Santoro S. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Modena won 4.

Modena has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Juve Stabia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Modena could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Modena: Chichizola L. (Injury) Gerli F. (Injury)

There will not play in Juve Stabia: Battistella T. (Inactive) Confente A. (Injury) Morachioli G. (Lacking Match Fitness) Varnier M. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Modena won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:7. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Modena won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:2. (average 2.8:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Modena	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
19	Juve Stabia	6	1	3	2	5:8	-3	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
08.05.26	Avellino - Modena	1:0 ✺
01.05.26	Modena - Reggiana	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Monza - Modena	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Modena - Frosinone	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Catanzaro - Modena	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLT
- Juve Stabia
Italian Serie B
08.05.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Juve Stabia	1:1 ✺
01.05.26	Juve Stabia - Frosinone	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Pescara - Juve Stabia	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Juve Stabia - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Juve Stabia - Cesena	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
22.02.26	Juve Stabia - Modena	1:2
02.11.25	Modena - Juve Stabia	3:0
15.03.25	Juve Stabia - Modena	2:1
21.09.24	Modena - Juve Stabia	3:0
12.04.14	Modena - Juve Stabia	4:2
09.11.13	Juve Stabia - Modena	1:1
28.03.13	Juve Stabia - Modena	1:0

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