Match Info

ITALY: SERIE A - ROUND 37

Date: 27 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Spezia		Torino

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.35	3.2	3.1
	2.38	3.25	3.1
	2.39	3.2	3.1
	2.45	3.34	3.14
	2.25	3	2.9
	2.4	3.28	3.04	Watch
	2.43	3.15	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.48)	3.21 ↓ (3.29)	3.09 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
39.8%

Draw
29.5%

Torino
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

28.8%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

29.3%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Torino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torino than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	22.2%	33.3%

Spezia - Torino Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Torino will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
69. Dragowski B. (G) 55. Wisniewski P. 4. Ampadu E. 43. Nikolaou D. 27. Amian K. 8. Ekdal A. 25. Esposito Sa. 6. Bourabia M. 13. Reca A. 11. Gyasi E. (C) 18. Nzola M.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 3. Schuurs P. 4. Buongiorno A. 13. Rodriguez R. (C) 17. Singo S. 28. Ricci S. 8. Ilic I. 27. Vojvoda M. 59. Miranchuk Al. 16. Vlasic N. 9. Sanabria A.
Substitutes
33. Agudelo K. 20. Bastoni S. 29. Caldara M. 72. Cipot T. 21. Ferrer S. 24. Kovalenko V. 19. Krollis R. 30. Maldini D. 22. Marchetti F. (G) 7. Sala J. 14. Shomurodov E. 10. Verde D. 1. Zoet J. (G) 77. Zurkowski S.	21. Adopo M. 34. Aina O. 2. Bayeye B. J. 26. Djidji K. 73. Fiorenza M. (G) 89. Gemello L. (G) 66. Gineitis G. 5. Gravillon A. 7. Karamoh Y. 77. Linetty K. 11. Pellegri P. 23. Seck D. 14. Vieira R. 6. Zima D.
Coaches
Semplici L.	Juric I.

Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 and 10).

Spezia has the most likely position - 17 (56.95%), project points - 33, currently - 31, a chance of relegated (32%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Torino has the most likely position - 11 (30.81%), project points - 53, currently - 50, not chance of relegated, not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 58, importance 47, match rating 53. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Spezia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Torino is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Spezia: Beck J. (Foot Injury) Caldara M. (Injury) Holm E. (Groin Injury) Moutinho J. (Foot Injury) Sala J. (Injury) Zovko P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Spezia: Bastoni S. (Injury) Maldini D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Torino: Radonjic N. (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie A
21.05.23	Lecce - Spezia	0:0 ✺
13.05.23	Spezia - Milan	2:0 ✺
06.05.23	Cremonese - Spezia	2:0 ✺
03.05.23	Atalanta - Spezia	3:2 ✺
28.04.23	Spezia - Monza	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TWLLL
- Torino FC
Italian Serie A
21.05.23	Torino - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
14.05.23	Verona - Torino	0:1 ✺
07.05.23	Torino - Monza	1:1 ✺
03.05.23	Sampdoria - Torino	0:2 ✺
29.04.23	Torino - Atalanta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
15.01.23	Torino - Spezia	0:1
23.04.22	Torino - Spezia	2:1
06.11.21	Spezia - Torino	1:0
15.05.21	Spezia - Torino	4:1
16.01.21	Torino - Spezia	0:0

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