Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 2 April 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción)

Referee: Merlos A. (Arg)


	Sportivo Ameliano		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.2	2.1	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2.15
	3.4	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3.2	2.17
	3.65	3.18	2.1
	3.3	3.2	2.05
	3.54	3.32	2.08	Watch
	3.45	3.15	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↓ (4.28)	3.22 ↓ (3.44)	2.11 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Ameliano
26.5%

Draw
29.1%

Athletico Paranaense
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

27.1%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

26.9%

51.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Ameliano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletico Paranaense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletico Paranaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Sportivo Ameliano - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletico Paranaense will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Rossi N. (G) 26. Gonzalez J. 2. Patino Martinez J. 3. Baez F. 24. Martinich M. 40. Contrera A. (C) 8. Torales S. 5. Maiz A. 11. Vera F. 17. Torales Richard 7. Samudio A.	1. Bento (G) 34. Pedro Henrique 44. Thiago Heleno (C) 15. Gamarra M. 29. Godoy L. 80. Alex Santana 5. Fernandinho 14. Canobbio A. 37. Esquivel L. 10. Zapelli B. 9. Gonzalo Mastriani
Substitutes
30. Alfonso F. 31. Aquino M. 14. Areco Sosa G. N. 9. Bareiro S. 25. Benitez M. 13. Cabrera W. 1. Cristoforo F. (G) 23. Franco F. 4. Gutierrez T. 21. Sarquis E. 29. Valdez I. 33. Villagra L.	11. Benitez R. 88. Christian 28. Cuello 7. Di Yorio L. 23. Felipinho 6. Fernando 17. Hugo Moura 20. Julimar 4. Kaique Rocha 24. Leo Linck (G) 22. Madson 41. Mycael (G)
Coaches
Sarabia P.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, Gonzalo Mastriani ⚽, Zapelli B. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Vera F. ⚽, Contrera A. (A),
25', Gamarra M. 🟨,
32', 1 - 2, Zapelli B. ⚽,
33', Thiago Heleno 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 3, Fernandinho ⚽, Godoy L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gamarra M. ↓, Felipinho ↑,
58', Torales S. ↓, Areco Sosa G. N. ↑,
58', Samudio A. ↓, Valdez I. ↑,
64', Contrera A. ↓, Villagra L. ↑,
64', Torales Richard ↓, Bareiro S. ↑,
71', Alex Santana ↓, Hugo Moura ↑,
74', 1 - 4, Gonzalo Mastriani ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
75', Canobbio A. ↓, Benitez R. ↑,
75', Gonzalo Mastriani ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
75', Zapelli B. ↓, Cuello ↑,
79', Vera F. ↓, Sarquis E. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Sportivo Ameliano is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Athletico PR is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Athletico PR could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Athletico PR is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
27.03.24	Tacuary - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
18.03.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Sol de América	2:1 ✺
11.03.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	4:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.03.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Olimpia Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.03.24	Sportivo Ameliano - 2 de Mayo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TWLWL
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
30.03.24	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
27.03.24	Athletico Paranaense - Operário Ferroviario	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Operário Ferroviario - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
10.03.24	Athletico Paranaense - Londrina	6:0 ✺
02.03.24	Londrina - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWL

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