Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Borussia Dortmund		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	1.29	5.25	12	Watch
	1.27	5.4	12.5	Watch
	1.28	5.57	11.37	Watch
	1.29	5	10
	1.32	5.64	12.2	Watch
	1.28	5.5	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.36)	5.39 ↑ (4.89)	11.51 ↑ (9.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
74%

Draw
17.7%

St. Pauli
8.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70%

19.5%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.1%

18.9%

10.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	5.7%	14.3%

Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 6 - 66.7%). St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1.5 - Borussia D (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Borussia D (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (28 of 34 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.53% – 95.17%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 8 - 72.7%). St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 23. Can E. (C) 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 26. Ryerson J. 7. Bellingham J. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 10. Brandt J. 21. Silva F.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 6. Sands J. 8. Smith E. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 16. Fujita J. 19. Kaars M. 28. Pereira Lage M.
Substitutes
14. Beier M. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 16. Duranville J. 9. Guirassy S. 39. Mane F. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 25. Sule N.	17. Afolayan O. 15. Ando T. 9. Ceesay A. 47. Gazdov E. (G) 26. Jones R.J. 23. Oppie L. 34. Robatsch J. 2. Saliakas M. 14. Stevens F.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Blessin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
38', Smith E. 🟨,
43', Adeyemi K. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Brandt J. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
54', 2 - 0, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Silva F. (A),
62', 2 - 1, Sands J. ⚽, Smith E. (A),
64', Dzwigala A. ↓, Ando T. ↑,
64', Ritzka L. ↓, Oppie L. ↑,
64', Kaars M. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
69', Bellingham J. 🟨,
71', Adeyemi K. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
71', Silva F. ↓, Guirassy S. ↑,
71', Ryerson J. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
72', 2 - 2, Jones R.J. ⚽, Smith E. (A),
83', Nmecha F. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,
83', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 2, Can E. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 3.

Borussia D is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

St. Pauli has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Borussia D may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Borussia D is the clear favorite.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Irvine J. (Foot Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury) Sinani D. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Metcalfe C. (Knee Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 2.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 8.73%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	11:4	7	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
13.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	3:0 ✺
09.01.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Borussia Dortmund	3:3 ✺
19.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bodø Glimt	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTWTT
- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
14.01.26	Wolfsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.01.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Köln - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
23.08.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	3:3
01.03.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
18.10.24	Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli	2:1
German DFB Pokal
18.01.22	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	2:1
Club Friendly
14.07.16	Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli	3:2
08.09.15	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	1:2
German DFB Pokal
28.10.14	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	0:3

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