Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, Startimes World Football
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	11:30	Disney+
Australia	01:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Belgium	15:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	11:30	Canal GOAT, SportyNet
Bulgaria	16:30	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	11:30	Disney+
China	22:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	09:30	Disney+
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 7
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	22:30	beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live
Hungary	15:30	Arena 4
Iceland	14:30	Viaplay
Israel	16:30	Sport 1
Italy	15:30	Sky Sport Max
Japan	23:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	21:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Mexico	08:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	22:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	19:30	Tapmad
Peru	09:30	Disney+
Philippines	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	14:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	17:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	17:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	22:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	15:30	Sport TV2, Voyo
South Korea	23:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Thailand	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	17:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	16:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
Uruguay	11:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	10:30	Disney+
Vietnam	21:30	TV 360
International	14:30	Onefootball


	Borussia Dortmund		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	1.29	5.25	12	Watch
	1.27	5.4	12.5	Watch
	1.28	5.57	11.37	Watch
	1.29	5	10
	1.32	5.64	12.2	Watch
	1.28	5.5	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.36)	5.39 ↑ (4.89)	11.51 ↑ (9.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Borussia Dortmund
74%

Draw
17.7%

St. Pauli
8.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

70%

19.5%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.1%

18.1%

9.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	5.7%	14.3%

Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 6 - 66.7%). St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1.5 - Borussia D (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Borussia D (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (28 of 34 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.53% – 95.17%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 8 - 72.7%). St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kobel G. (G) 23. Can E. (C) 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 26. Ryerson J. 7. Bellingham J. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 27. Adeyemi K. 10. Brandt J. 21. Silva F.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 6. Sands J. 8. Smith E. (C) 21. Ritzka L. 16. Fujita J. 19. Kaars M. 28. Pereira Lage M.
Substitutes
14. Beier M. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 2. Couto Y. 16. Duranville J. 9. Guirassy S. 39. Mane F. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 25. Sule N.	17. Afolayan O. 15. Ando T. 9. Ceesay A. 47. Gazdov E. (G) 26. Jones R.J. 23. Oppie L. 34. Robatsch J. 2. Saliakas M. 14. Stevens F.
Coaches
Kovac N.	Blessin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
38', Smith E. 🟨,
43', Adeyemi K. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Brandt J. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
54', 2 - 0, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Silva F. (A),
62', 2 - 1, Sands J. ⚽, Smith E. (A),
64', Dzwigala A. ↓, Ando T. ↑,
64', Ritzka L. ↓, Oppie L. ↑,
64', Kaars M. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
69', Bellingham J. 🟨,
71', Adeyemi K. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
71', Silva F. ↓, Guirassy S. ↑,
71', Ryerson J. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
72', 2 - 2, Jones R.J. ⚽, Smith E. (A),
83', Nmecha F. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,
83', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 2, Can E. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 3.

Borussia D is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

St. Pauli has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Borussia D may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Borussia D is the clear favorite.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Irvine J. (Foot Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury) Sinani D. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Metcalfe C. (Knee Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 2.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	12:4	8	17

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 7.11%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
13.01.26	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	3:0 ✺
09.01.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Borussia Dortmund	3:3 ✺
19.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:0 ✺
14.12.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bodø Glimt	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTWTT
- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
14.01.26	Wolfsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.01.26	St. Pauli - Werder Bremen	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Köln - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
23.08.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	3:3
01.03.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
18.10.24	Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli	2:1
German DFB Pokal
18.01.22	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	2:1
Club Friendly
14.07.16	Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli	3:2
08.09.15	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	1:2
German DFB Pokal
28.10.14	St. Pauli - Borussia Dortmund	0:3

Upcoming Matches