Match Info

Date: 4 October 2022, Tuesday

Location: Broadhall Way (Stevenage)

Referee: Boyeson C. (Eng)


	Stevenage Borough		Sutton United

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.5
	1.78	3.5	4.33
	1.8	3.4	4.6
	1.79	3.5	4.2
	1.86	3.56	4.59
	1.83	3.4	4.33
	1.89	3.6	4.4	Watch
	1.81	3.55	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.02)	3.51 ↑ (3.26)	4.41 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
51.8%

Draw
26.8%

Sutton United
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

28.6%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

28.3%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stevenage Borough's performance.

Sutton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stevenage Borough that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	13%	9.3%

Stevenage Borough - Sutton United Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Stevenage will win (votes: 42 - 77.8%). Sutton will win (votes: 5 - 9.3%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stevenage: 66.7% – 88.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 11).

Stevenage has the most likely position - 5 (6.17%), has project points - 69, has currently - 16, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (24%), has a chance of promoted (19%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Sutton has the most likely position - 10 (5.75%), has project points - 64, has currently - 11, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (20%), has a small chance of promoted (13%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has small quality 11, small importance 29, small match rating 20. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Stevenage will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Stevenage won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Stevenage won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League Two
01.10.22	Crawley Town - Stevenage Borough	1:2 ✺
24.09.22	Stevenage Borough - Harrogate Town	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Stevenage Borough - Wycombe Wanderers	3:0 ✺
English League Two
17.09.22	Bradford City - Stevenage Borough	3:0 ✺
13.09.22	Stevenage Borough - Newport County	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWLW
- Sutton United
English League Two
01.10.22	Gillingham - Sutton United	1:0 ✺
24.09.22	Sutton United - Salford City	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Leyton Orient - Sutton United	3:1 ✺
English League Two
17.09.22	Sutton United - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
13.09.22	Swindon Town - Sutton United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
15.01.22	Stevenage Borough - Sutton United	3:3
English EFL Trophy
30.11.21	Sutton United - Stevenage Borough	1:0 penalties
English League Two
11.09.21	Sutton United - Stevenage Borough	2:1

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