Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Stuttgart		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.12	3.55	3.35	Watch
	1.79	4.2	4.34
	1.14	6.09	53.77	Watch
				Watch
	2.17	3.51	3.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.76)	4.15 ↑ (4.08)	13.67 ↑ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stuttgart
63.1%

Draw
28.3%

Mainz
8.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

23.4%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

22.9%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stuttgart's performance.

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mainz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stuttgart that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mainz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.1%	12.6%	2.3%

Stuttgart - Mainz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Stuttgart (2.81) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Stuttgart (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Mainz (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Stuttgart will win (74 of 87 users predict this - 85.06%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.57% – 92.55%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stuttgart will win (39 of 43 users predict this - 90.7%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 48 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 42 - 87.5%). Mainz (votes: 3 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Nubel A. (G) 29. Jeltsch F. 23. Zagadou D. 2. Al Dakhil A. 15. Stenzel P. 30. Andres C. 28. Nartey N. 4. Vagnoman J. 18. Leweling J. 10. Fuhrich C. 26. Undav D. (C)	27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 2. Mwene P. 10. Amiri N. 6. Sano K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 17. Hollerbach B.
Substitutes
22. Assignon L. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 24. Chabot J. 11. El Khannouss B. 3. Hendriks R. 16. Karazor A. 6. Stiller A. 8. Tomas T.	37. Bobzien B. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 24. Kawasaki S. 15. Maloney L. 9. Nordin A. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Hoeness S.	Henriksen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Amiri N. (Pen),
45+1', Stenzel P. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Fuhrich C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Mwene P. 🟨,
62', Stenzel P. ↓, Assignon L. ↑,
62', Nartey N. ↓, Stiller A. ↑,
63', Kohr D. 🟨,
65', Jeltsch F. 🟨,
67', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
67', Kohr D. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
72', Leweling J. ↓, Tomas T. ↑,
72', Fuhrich C. ↓, El Khannouss B. ↑,
75', Zagadou D. ↓, Chabot J. ↑,
77', Assignon L. 🟨,
79', 2 - 1, Undav D. ⚽, Nubel A. (A),
81', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
87', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
87', Bell S. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
90+8', Tomas T. 🟨,
90+8', Amiri N. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Stuttgart has had a series of away games.

In this match, Stuttgart is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Stuttgart: Demirovic E. (Foot Injury) Diehl J. (Ankle Injury) Drljaca S. (Injury) Zagadou D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Stuttgart: Silas (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 32:24. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Stuttgart won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:14. (average 1.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Stuttgart
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Fenerbahçe - Stuttgart	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Wolfsburg - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
05.10.25	Stuttgart - Heidenheim	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Basel - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.09.25	Köln - Stuttgart	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWWLW
- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Mainz - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
05.10.25	Hamburger SV - Mainz	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Omonia - Mainz	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
25.01.25	Mainz - Stuttgart	2:0
31.08.24	Stuttgart - Mainz	3:3
11.02.24	Stuttgart - Mainz	3:1
16.09.23	Mainz - Stuttgart	1:3
21.05.23	Mainz - Stuttgart	1:4
21.01.23	Stuttgart - Mainz	1:1
16.04.22	Mainz - Stuttgart	0:0

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