Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	17:30	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	13:30	Disney+
Asia	—	MBC Action
Australia	03:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	17:30	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	17:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Brazil	13:30	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, RedeTV!, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	18:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	12:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	13:30	Disney+
China	00:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	11:30	Disney+
Croatia	17:30	SportKlub 4
Czech Republic	17:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	17:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	18:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	17:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	20:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	17:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	18:30	Nova Sports 4
Hong Kong	00:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	16:30	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	22:00	Vision+
Indonesia	23:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	18:30	Sport 3
Italy	17:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport MIX
Japan	01:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	23:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	00:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	17:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	10:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	00:30	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	17:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	05:30	beIN Connect, TVWan Sports 2
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	17:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	17:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	21:30	Tapmad
Peru	11:30	Disney+
Philippines	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	17:30	Eleven Sports 3, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	16:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	18:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	19:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	19:30	Shahid
Serbia	17:30	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	00:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	17:30	Voyo
Slovenia	17:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	01:30	Coupang Play
Spain	17:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	17:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	17:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	23:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	19:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	18:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	16:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	13:30	Disney+
Usa	12:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	12:30	Disney+
Vietnam	23:30	TV 360
International	16:30	Onefootball


	Stuttgart		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.12	3.55	3.35	Watch
	1.79	4.2	4.34
	1.14	6.09	53.77	Watch
				Watch
	2.17	3.51	3.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.76)	4.15 ↑ (4.08)	13.67 ↑ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stuttgart
63.1%

Draw
28.3%

Mainz
8.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.2%

23.4%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

22.9%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stuttgart's performance.

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mainz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stuttgart that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mainz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.1%	12.6%	2.3%

Stuttgart - Mainz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Stuttgart (2.81) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Stuttgart (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Mainz (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Stuttgart will win (74 of 87 users predict this - 85.06%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.57% – 92.55%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stuttgart will win (39 of 43 users predict this - 90.7%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 48 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 42 - 87.5%). Mainz (votes: 3 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 6.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Nubel A. (G) 29. Jeltsch F. 23. Zagadou D. 2. Al Dakhil A. 15. Stenzel P. 30. Andres C. 28. Nartey N. 4. Vagnoman J. 18. Leweling J. 10. Fuhrich C. 26. Undav D. (C)	27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 2. Mwene P. 10. Amiri N. 6. Sano K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 17. Hollerbach B.
Substitutes
22. Assignon L. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 24. Chabot J. 11. El Khannouss B. 3. Hendriks R. 16. Karazor A. 6. Stiller A. 8. Tomas T.	37. Bobzien B. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 24. Kawasaki S. 15. Maloney L. 9. Nordin A. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Hoeness S.	Henriksen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Amiri N. (Pen),
45+1', Stenzel P. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Fuhrich C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Mwene P. 🟨,
62', Stenzel P. ↓, Assignon L. ↑,
62', Nartey N. ↓, Stiller A. ↑,
63', Kohr D. 🟨,
65', Jeltsch F. 🟨,
67', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
67', Kohr D. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
72', Leweling J. ↓, Tomas T. ↑,
72', Fuhrich C. ↓, El Khannouss B. ↑,
75', Zagadou D. ↓, Chabot J. ↑,
77', Assignon L. 🟨,
79', 2 - 1, Undav D. ⚽, Nubel A. (A),
81', Widmer S. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
87', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
87', Bell S. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
90+8', Tomas T. 🟨,
90+8', Amiri N. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Stuttgart has had a series of away games.

In this match, Stuttgart is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Stuttgart: Demirovic E. (Foot Injury) Diehl J. (Ankle Injury) Drljaca S. (Injury) Zagadou D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Stuttgart: Silas (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 32:24. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Stuttgart won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:14. (average 1.8:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Stuttgart
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Fenerbahçe - Stuttgart	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Wolfsburg - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
05.10.25	Stuttgart - Heidenheim	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Basel - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.09.25	Köln - Stuttgart	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWWLW
- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Mainz - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
05.10.25	Hamburger SV - Mainz	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Omonia - Mainz	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
25.01.25	Mainz - Stuttgart	2:0
31.08.24	Stuttgart - Mainz	3:3
11.02.24	Stuttgart - Mainz	3:1
16.09.23	Mainz - Stuttgart	1:3
21.05.23	Mainz - Stuttgart	1:4
21.01.23	Stuttgart - Mainz	1:1
16.04.22	Mainz - Stuttgart	0:0

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