Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadium of Light (Sunderland)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sunderland		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.3	2.05
	3.7	3.4	2.1
	3.9	3.47	2.11
	3.88	3.26	2.00	Watch
	3.9	3.6	1.85
	3.71	3.4	2.21	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.81 ↓ (3.9)	3.41 ↓ (3.72)	2.05 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sunderland
25.2%

Draw
28.1%

Aston Villa
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.6%

25.8%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

25.7%

49.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.4%	21.1%	31.6%

Sunderland - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Sunderland will win (votes: 26 - 46.4%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 18 - 32.1%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sunderland: 33.3% – 59.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Sunderland (votes: 9 - 50%). Aston Villa (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Aston Villa (1.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Sunderland (votes: 9 - 45%). Aston Villa (votes: 5 - 25%). Tie (votes: 6 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Roefs R. (G) 32. Hume T. 20. Mukiele N. 15. Alderete O. 17. Mandava R. 11. Rigg C. 34. Xhaka G. (C) 27. Sadiki N. 7. Talbi C. 18. Isidor W. 28. Le Fee E.	23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 12. Digne L. 7. McGinn J. (C) 44. Kamara B. 29. Guessand E. 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
24. Adingra S. 5. Ballard D. 9. Brobbey B. 6. Geertruida L. 26. Masuaku A. 12. Mayenda E. 4. Neil D. 1. Patterson A. (G) 25. Traore B.	40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 9. Elliott H. 20. Jimoh-Aloba J. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 17. Malen D. 19. Sancho J. 14. Torres P.
Coaches
Le Bris R.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Mandava R. 🟥,
37', Rigg C. ↓, Ballard D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Digne L. ↓, Elliott H. ↑,
58', Buendia E. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
63', Maatsen I. 🟨,
67', 0 - 1, Cash M. ⚽, Kamara B. (A),
73', Guessand E. ↓, Malen D. ↑,
75', 1 - 1, Isidor W. ⚽, Xhaka G. (A),
80', Isidor W. ↓, Mayenda E. ↑,
80', Talbi C. ↓, Masuaku A. ↑,
81', Le Fee E. ↓, Geertruida L. ↑,
82', Rogers M. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
82', Kamara B. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
88', Xhaka G. 🟨,
90+1', Sadiki N. ↓, Neil D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sunderland won 1.

In recent matches, Sunderland has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Aston Villa is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Aston Villa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Aston Villa might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Sunderland: Alese A. (Shoulder Injury) Cirkin D. (Wrist Injury) Hjelde L. F. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Mundle R. (Hamstring Injury) O'Nien L. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Lacking Match Fitness) Garcia A. (Knock) Onana A. (Hamstring Injury) Tielemans Y. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Sunderland: Ballard D. (Groin Injury) Le Fee E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Lindelof V. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Sunderland won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:20. (average 0.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sunderland won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.6:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sunderland AFC
English Premier League
13.09.25	Crystal Palace - Sunderland	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Sunderland - Brentford	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Sunderland - Huddersfield Town	1:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Burnley - Sunderland	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Sunderland - West Ham United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TWLLW
- Aston Villa
English League Cup
16.09.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	2:1 penalties ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Everton - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Aston Villa - Crystal Palace	0:3 ✺
23.08.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
06.03.18	Sunderland - Aston Villa	0:3
21.11.17	Aston Villa - Sunderland	2:1
English Premier League
02.01.16	Sunderland - Aston Villa	3:1
29.08.15	Aston Villa - Sunderland	2:2
14.03.15	Sunderland - Aston Villa	0:4
28.12.14	Aston Villa - Sunderland	0:0
01.01.14	Sunderland - Aston Villa	0:1

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