Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 33

Date: 13 February 2024, Tuesday

Location: VBS Community Stadium (London)

Referee: Middleton D. (Eng)


	Sutton United		Wrexham

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.6	1.91
	3.75	3.6	1.88
	3.75	3.75	1.9	Watch
	3.55	3.55	1.96
	4.06	3.56	1.97
	3.6	3.7	1.85
	3.73	3.66	1.91	Watch
	3.65	3.55	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↓ (5.82)	3.62 ↓ (4.13)	1.91 ↑ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sutton United
25.1%

Draw
25.8%

Wrexham
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16%

22.5%

61.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.1%

21.1%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sutton United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sutton United's performance.

Wrexham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Wrexham might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sutton United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wrexham than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wrexham could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	21.4%	35.7%

Sutton United - Wrexham Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Sutton will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Wrexham will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sutton: 17% – 68.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Bouzanis D. (G) 23. Jackson R. 22. Kizzi J. 5. Goodliffe B. 3. Adom-Malaki S. 31. Lakin C. 10. Beautyman H. 27. Moore D. 38. Sanderson O. 11. Patrick O. 9. Smith H. (C)	33. Okonkwo A. (G) 32. Cleworth M. 25. Boyle W. 15. O'Connell E. 17. Bolton L. 20. Cannon A. 12. Evans G. 38. Lee E. 23. McClean J. (C) 26. Fletcher S. 11. Marriott J.
Substitutes
33. Angol L. 25. Arnold S. (G) 50. Duke-McKenna S. 15. Eastmond C. 42. Hart S. 6. John L. 4. Sowunmi O.	29. Barnett R. 21. Howard M. (G) 19. Mendy J. 10. Mullin P. 9. Palmer O. 6. Tunnicliffe J. 8. Young L.
Coaches
Morison S.	Parkinson P.

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sutton won 1.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Wrexham could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Wrexham is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Sutton won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Sutton won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sutton United
English League Two
10.02.24	Morecambe - Sutton United	1:0 ✺
03.02.24	Sutton United - Doncaster Rovers	1:1 ✺
30.01.24	Sutton United - Harrogate Town	1:2 ✺
27.01.24	Walsall - Sutton United	1:1 ✺
23.01.24	Mansfield Town - Sutton United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LTLTT
- Wrexham AFC
English League Two
10.02.24	Wrexham - Bradford City	0:1 ✺
03.02.24	Salford City - Wrexham	3:1 ✺
English FA Cup
29.01.24	Blackburn Rovers - Wrexham	4:1 ✺
English League Two
20.01.24	Newport County - Wrexham	1:0 ✺
13.01.24	Wrexham - AFC Wimbledon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
24.10.23	Wrexham - Sutton United	2:1
English National League
06.03.21	Sutton United - Wrexham	0:0
24.11.20	Wrexham - Sutton United	4:0
21.12.19	Sutton United - Wrexham	3:1
14.09.19	Wrexham - Sutton United	1:1
19.04.19	Wrexham - Sutton United	1:0
22.09.18	Sutton United - Wrexham	3:0

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