Match Info

League Two - Round 40

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: County Ground (Swindon)

Referee: Barlow M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Swindon Town		Fleetwood Town

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.5	3.3	Watch
	2.02	3.45	3.45	Watch
	2.12	3.59	3.54
	2.11	3.48	3.25	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.25
	2.04	3.42	3.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.97)	3.46 ↓ (3.59)	3.37 ↓ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
45.3%

Draw
27%

Fleetwood Town
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

25.9%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

25.1%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Fleetwood Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Swindon Town will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 5. Wright W. (C) 22. Knight-Lebel J. 17. Tafazolli R. 34. Kirkman B. 18. Kilkenny G. 44. Oldaker D. 29. Olakigbe M. 28. Palmer O. 31. Bodin B. 23. Drinan A.	13. Lynch J. (G) 35. Haughey C. 26. Rooney S. 5. Potter F. 16. Ennis E. 8. Virtue-Thick M. 20. Neal H. 10. Helm M. 24. Clark M. 17. Evans C. (C) 9. Davies W.
Substitutes
6. Ball J. 26. Batty J. 25. Borland A. 24. Holman F. 20. Middlemas B. 7. Nichols T. 12. Ward L. (G)	2. Bennett R. 37. Hewitson L. (G) 38. McLean C. 23. Morrison G. 11. Norwood J. 7. Osong D. E. 22. Powell J.
Coaches
Holloway I.	Lawlor M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Neal H. 🟨,
25', Tafazolli R. 🟨,
28', Kirkman B. 🟨,
41', Potter F. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Bodin B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 1 - 1, Helm M. ⚽, Evans C. (A),
61', Bodin B. ↓, Holman F. ↑,
61', Kirkman B. ↓, Batty J. ↑,
69', Clark M. 🟨,
76', Kilkenny G. ↓, Borland A. ↑,
76', Palmer O. ↓, Nichols T. ↑,
77', Tafazolli R. ↓, Ball J. ↑,
78', Clark M. ↓, Powell J. ↑,
82', Virtue-Thick M. ↓, Morrison G. ↑,
86', Davies W. 🟨,
86', Knight-Lebel J. 🟨,
88', Evans C. ↓, Norwood J. ↑,
88', Davies W. ↓, Osong D. E. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Swindon will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D. (Inactive) Clarke O. (Inactive) Glatzel P. (Inactive) Minturn H. (Groin Injury) Smith H. (Knee Injury) Snowdon J. (Injury) Wilson-Brown T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Fleetwood: Hume D. (Inactive) McCann L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Swindon: Ball J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fleetwood: Bolton J. (Inactive) Mullarkey T. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Swindon	10	3	2	5	9:14	-5	11
18	Fleetwood	9	2	4	3	9:10	-1	10

Last Results with these Odds

Swindon Town - the odds 1.97 are the expected chance of winning is 47.14%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Fleetwood Town - the odds 3.44 are the expected chance of winning is 26.99%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League Two
21.03.26	Tranmere Rovers - Swindon Town	0:1 ✺
17.03.26	Gillingham - Swindon Town	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Swindon Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Crawley Town - Swindon Town	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWLTT
- Fleetwood Town
English League Two
21.03.26	Fleetwood Town - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
17.03.26	Grimsby Town - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Fleetwood Town - Tranmere Rovers	0:0 ✺
10.03.26	Fleetwood Town - Cheltenham Town	2:2 ✺
07.03.26	Gillingham - Fleetwood Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
15.11.25	Fleetwood Town - Swindon Town	1:1
05.04.25	Fleetwood Town - Swindon Town	0:4
07.12.24	Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town	3:1
English League One
20.03.21	Fleetwood Town - Swindon Town	0:2
12.12.20	Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town	0:1
01.04.17	Fleetwood Town - Swindon Town	0:1
17.12.16	Swindon Town - Fleetwood Town	1:1

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