Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 19 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2, ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Onefootball


	São Paulo		Millonarios

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.75	6	Watch
	1.62	3.55	5.4	Watch
	1.62	3.63	5.79
	1.61	3.8	5.74	Watch
	1.62	3.4	5.5
	1.62	3.71	5.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.61)	3.64 ↓ (3.67)	5.71 ↑ (5.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
57.9%

Draw
25.7%

Millonarios
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

25.2%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

24%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

São Paulo - Millonarios Predictions

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 4. Matheus Doria 28. Franco A. 13. Diaz E. 94. Danielzinho 16. Bobadilla D. 37. Artur 10. Luciano 11. Ferreira 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)	12. Novoa D. (G) 30. Viveros S. 6. Mosquera S. 17. Arias J. 22. Valencia S. 26. Llinas A. 19. Garcia M. 18. Urena R. 14. Silva D. (C) 23. Castro L. 27. Contreras R.
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 48. Djhordney 38. Hugo Leonardo 33. Luan Silva 45. Lucca Marques 54. Luis Osorio 46. Pedro Ferreira 35. Sabino 21. Soares C. 14. Tapia G. 18. Wendell	24. Angulo J. 20. Banguero D. 33. Castro A. 1. De Amores G. (G) 4. Elizalde E. 99. Hurtado J. 29. Moreno Paz A. F. 35. Mosquera S. 3. Samuel M. 2. Sarabia C. 28. Vega S.
Coaches
Dorival Junior	Bustos F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Luciano ⚽, Bobadilla D. (A),
30', Mosquera S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Jonathan Calleri 🟨,
52', Ferreira 🟨,
58', Silva D. ↓, Castro A. ↑,
59', Viveros S. 🟨,
63', Ferreira ↓, Wendell ↑,
70', Castro A. 🟨,
73', Artur 🟨,
75', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
75', Castro L. ↓, Hurtado J. ↑,
76', Garcia M. ↓, Vega S. ↑,
78', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
81', 1 - 1, Hurtado J. ⚽,
85', Diaz E. ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
85', Luciano ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
85', Danielzinho ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
85', Valencia S. ↓, Banguero D. ↑,
88', Contreras R. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Recent form of São Paulo has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Millonarios is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Millonarios may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.

In this match, São Paulo is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, São Paulo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

São Paulo - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.5%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Fluminense - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Juventude - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.26	OHiggins - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTT
- Millonarios FC
Colombian Copa
15.05.26	Patriotas - Millonarios	2:3 ✺
11.05.26	Millonarios - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.26	Boston River - Millonarios	2:4 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Alianza Valledupar - Millonarios	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Millonarios - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Millonarios - São Paulo	0:0

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