Match Info

Date: 5 April 2022, Tuesday


	Ternana		Lecce

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3.4	2.2
	3.35	3.25	2.15	Watch
	3.2	3.15	2.18
	3.41	3.43	2.26
	3.25	3.2	2.25
	3.3	3.48	2.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.27)	3.33 ↑ (3.1)	2.2 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ternana
28.8%

Draw
28.3%

Lecce
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

30.3%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

30.1%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ternana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ternana's form might have worsened.

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lecce's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ternana than the current prediction. (+12.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ternana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-14.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lecce, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ternana - Lecce Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Ternana has the most likely position - 13 (21.21%), has project points - 51, has currently - 44, has not chance of relegated, has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Lecce has the most likely position - 1 (32.96%), has project points - 70, has currently - 59, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of prom. playoffs (40%), has a good chance of promoted (71%), has a chance of win league (33%).

This event has quality 37, importance 52, match rating 44. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Ternana is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Lecce is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lecce will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ternana won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Ternana won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ternana Calcio
Italian Serie B
02.04.22	Cittadella - Ternana	1:2 ✺
19.03.22	Ternana - Alessandria	3:0 ✺
15.03.22	Como - Ternana	1:1 ✺
12.03.22	Ternana - Nuova Cosenza	2:0 ✺
06.03.22	Vicenza Virtus - Ternana	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWTWL
- US Lecce
Italian Serie B
02.04.22	Lecce - Frosinone	1:0 ✺
19.03.22	Parma - Lecce	0:0 ✺
15.03.22	Nuova Cosenza - Lecce	2:2 ✺
12.03.22	Lecce - Brescia	1:1 ✺
06.03.22	Perugia - Lecce	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.11.21	Lecce - Ternana	3:3
Coppa Italia
11.08.13	Ternana - Lecce	2:4 ET

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