Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 31

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Perugia		Pontedera

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.55	3.5	5.25
	1.62	3.6	5.15	Watch
	1.65	3.53	5.34
	1.62	3.61	5.22	Watch
	1.62	3.2	5
	1.59	3.38	5.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.57)	3.47 ↓ (3.5)	5.27 ↓ (5.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
56.5%

Draw
26.2%

Pontedera
17.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58%

26%

16%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

20.5%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Pontedera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Perugia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Perugia - Pontedera Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Pontedera will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pontedera (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gemello L. (G) 31. Tozzuolo A. 5. Angella G. 28. Riccardi D. 26. Calapai L. 20. Tumbarello G. 21. Ladinetti R. 10. Canotto L. 24. Verre V. 11. Bacchin L. 9. Montevago D.	40. Saracco U. (G) 23. Cerretti C. 13. Sapola M. 3. Leo D. 17. Vitali P. 8. Faggi F. 7. Emmanuello S. 28. Raychev A. 10. Kabashi E. 25. Nabian H. 45. Yeboah P.
Substitutes
16. Bartolomei P. 98. Bolsius D. 15. Dell'Orco C. 2. Esculino I. 4. Joselito 77. Manzari G. 32. Megelaitis L. 12. Moro L. (G) 90. Nepi A. 18. Perugini M. 73. Polizzi M. 71. Rondolini P. 55. Strappini S. (G) 17. Terrnava D.	32. Beghetto L. 22. Biagini V. (G) 16. Buffon L. 80. Caponi A. 33. Fancelli A. 11. Lugano T. 14. Manfredonia M. 27. Mbambi J. 18. Paolieri L. 20. Pietrelli R. 30. Strada N. (G) 26. Wagner G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Montevago D. ⚽,
39', Montevago D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Raychev A. ↓, Fancelli A. ↑,
46', Lisi F. ↓, Bacchin L. ↑,
58', Verre V. ↓, Bolsius D. ↑,
59', Canotto L. ↓, Manzari G. ↑,
60', Bolsius D. 🟨,
65', Cerretti C. 🟨,
70', Emmanuello S. ↓, Buffon L. ↑,
70', Faggi F. ↓, Caponi A. ↑,
76', Ladinetti R. ↓, Megelaitis L. ↑,
77', Nabian H. ↓, Teixeira S. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Montevago D. ⚽,
85', Montevago D. ↓, Nepi A. ↑,
85', Kabashi E. ↓, Manfredonia M. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Buffon L. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 3.

Recent performances by Perugia have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pontedera is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Perugia is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Perugia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 1.5:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Perugia	10	5	1	4	14:15	-1	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
04.03.26	Livorno - Perugia	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Perugia - Pineto	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Perugia - Carpi	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Pianese - Perugia	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Sambenedettese - Perugia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLTLW
- US Pontedera
Italian Serie C Group B
04.03.26	Pontedera - Juventus U23	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Vis Pesaro - Pontedera	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Pontedera - Ascoli	1:3 ✺
15.02.26	Pontedera - Gubbio	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Forlì - Pontedera	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
02.11.25	Pontedera - Perugia	2:2
Coppa Italia Serie C
17.08.25	Perugia - Pontedera	1:0 penalties
Italian Serie C Group B
27.04.25	Perugia - Pontedera	3:0
15.12.24	Pontedera - Perugia	2:1
27.01.24	Pontedera - Perugia	2:3
19.09.23	Perugia - Pontedera	1:1
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
13.04.14	Perugia - Pontedera	1:0

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