The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Tlaxcala 52.1%
Draw 25.3%
Atlético La Paz 22.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43.2%
25.6%
31.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44%
25.1%
30.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tlaxcala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tlaxcala's performance.
Atlético La Paz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético La Paz might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (-8.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tlaxcala that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (+8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético La Paz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Tlaxcala - Atlético La Paz Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Mendoza H. (G) 19. Castaneda S. 9. Christian 6. Gonzalez Martinez J. D. 2. Gonzalez P. 12. Lazaro J. 8. Plascencia F. 25. Rojas H. 11. Salomon O. 31. Silva J. 15. Tejeda D.
23. Estrada J. (G) 13. Alaffita Garcia E. J. 92. Alvarez D. 10. Barragan M. 5. Bass A. 16. Del Aguila Y. 27. Garcia G. 25. Illescas F. 12. Millan O. 15. Torres H. 28. Zurita Jimenez U.
Substitutes
28. Becerra L. 18. Buganza F. 17. Castillo E. 4. Fabio Erins 20. Godinez I. 1. Mata F. (G) 27. Partida F. 24. Robles E. 14. Vazquez J. 21. Zaragoza A.
33. Alcala G. (G) 17. Chiu L. 22. Flores R. 8. Gutierrez L. 6. Hernandez D. 19. Jaimes U. 11. Renteria R. 3. Rodriguez G. 26. Yanez J.
Coaches
Fabian M.
Castillo H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Estrada J. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Gonzalez Martinez J. D. (Pen),
41', Gonzalez P. 🟨,
43', Alaffita Garcia E. J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 3)
54', 1 - 1, Barragan M. ⚽, Millan O. (A),
56', Salomon O. ↓, Zaragoza A. ↑,
56', Castaneda S. 🟨,
60', Zaragoza A. 🟨,
60', 🟨,
66', Illescas F. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
66', Castaneda S. ↓, Fabio Erins ↑,
66', Tejeda D. ↓, Castillo E. ↑,
68', Rojas H. ↓, Partida F. ↑,
70', Del Aguila Y. 🟨,
76', Alvarez D. ↓, Chiu L. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Silva J. ⚽, Gonzalez P. (A),
85', 3 - 1, Partida F. ⚽,
87', Bass A. ↓, Jaimes U. ↑,
87', Alaffita Garcia E. J. ↓, Gutierrez L. ↑,
87', Millan O. ↓, Renteria R. ↑,
87', Christian ↓, Robles E. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 2, Torres H. ⚽, Jaimes U. (A),
90+6', 3 - 3, Jaimes U. ⚽,
90+6', Plascencia F. 🟨,
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 1.
Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
Atlético La Paz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Tlaxcala might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tlaxcala won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.5:2).
Including home matches between the teams, Tlaxcala won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).
Mexico
Usa
Watch
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Mendoza H. (G) 
Christian 
Salomon O. 
Rodriguez G. 
Castillo H. 
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