Match Info

JAPAN: J2 LEAGUE - ROUND 18

Date: 28 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Pocarisweat Stadium (Naruto)

Referee: Tanimoto R. (Jpn)


	Tokushima Vortis		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.5	3.1	1.95
	4	3.15	1.95
	4.09	3.26	2.07
	3.7	3	2
	3.92	3.28	2.01	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (2.6)	3.21 ↓ (3.24)	2.01 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tokushima Vortis
24.7%

Draw
29%

Machida Zelvia
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

28%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

28.6%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokushima Vortis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tokushima Vortis's form might have worsened.

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Machida Zelvia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tokushima Vortis, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Tokushima Vortis - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tokushima will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Suarez J. (G) 26. Mori K. 3. Ishio R. 4. Abe T. 7. Shirai E. 39. Nishino T. 23. Hyon R. 10. Sugimoto T. 24. Nishiya K. 9. Mori K. 8. Kakitani Y.	23. Popp W. (G) 2. Okuyama M. 14. Jang M. 34. Fujiwara Y. 22. Onaga H. 27. Hirakawa Y. 19. Inaba S. 18. Shimoda H. 7. Araki S. 15. Duke M. 11. Erik
Substitutes
37. Hamashita A. 33. Nakano K. 27. Sakurai T. 15. Tanahashi A. 21. Tanaka H. (G) 30. Tsuboi K. 6. Uchida K.	25. Fujio S. 5. Fukatsu K. 42. Fukui K. (G) 30. Nakashima Y. 9. Numata T. 6. Ota K. 41. Yasui T.
Coaches
Labaien B.	Kuroda G.

Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tokushima won 5.

Recent matches Tokushima is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Machida Zelvia in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Machida Zelvia will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Tokushima won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 19-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Tokushima won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 League
21.05.23	Fujieda MYFC - Tokushima Vortis	3:0 ✺
17.05.23	Tokushima Vortis - Zweigen Kanazawa	2:0 ✺
13.05.23	Renofa Yamaguchi - Tokushima Vortis	2:2 ✺
07.05.23	Omiya Ardija - Tokushima Vortis	1:3 ✺
03.05.23	Tokushima Vortis - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWTWT
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J2 League
21.05.23	Machida Zelvia - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:1 ✺
17.05.23	Machida Zelvia - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:0 ✺
13.05.23	Tokyo Verdy - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
07.05.23	Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
03.05.23	Omiya Ardija - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
01.10.22	Tokushima Vortis - Machida Zelvia	3:2
01.05.22	Machida Zelvia - Tokushima Vortis	0:2
25.11.20	Tokushima Vortis - Machida Zelvia	3:0
12.08.20	Machida Zelvia - Tokushima Vortis	0:1
21.07.19	Machida Zelvia - Tokushima Vortis	0:3
08.06.19	Tokushima Vortis - Machida Zelvia	1:0
22.09.18	Machida Zelvia - Tokushima Vortis	1:1

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