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Current Win Probability
Tondela 41.7%
Draw 28.8%
Arouca 29.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
48%
27.6%
24.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
47.3%
28%
24.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tondela's form might have worsened.
Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arouca's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tondela, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
26.3%
52.6%
21.1%
Tondela - Arouca Predictions
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Arouca will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 52.6%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.1% – 75.1%.
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 60. Maviram E. 10. Hodge J. 97. Cicero 48. Manso T. 7. Pedro Maranhao 17. Cavaleiro I. 29. Siebatcheu J.
58. Mantl N. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 4. Rocha M. 5. Popovic B. 3. Fontan J. 89. Pedro Santos 22. van Ee E. 14. Lee H. 19. Trezza A. 17. Barbero I. 7. Djouahra N.
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 6. Ceitil A. 27. Conceicao R. 79. Felix H. 70. Moudjatovic M. 32. Rodriguez J. 11. Rodriguez Y. 8. Tavares H.
66. Fayed O. 21. Fukui T. 10. Gozalbez P. 25. Kuipers B. 24. Mansilla B. 6. Monteiro D. 23. Nandin D. 11. Puche 1. Valido J. (G)
Coaches
Bacci C.
Seabra V.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Trezza A. ⚽, van Ee E. (A),
12', 1 - 1, Maviram E. ⚽,
19', Maviram E. 🟨,
34', 2 - 1, Siebatcheu J. ⚽, Maviram E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
53', Cicero 🟨,
57', Manso T. 🟨,
60', 3 - 1, Rodriguez Y. ⚽, Maviram E. (A),
65', Popovic B. ↓, Fukui T. ↑,
65', van Ee E. ↓, Kuipers B. ↑,
73', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
77', Manso T. ↓, Conceicao R. ↑,
80', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
80', Djouahra N. ↓, Puche ↑,
83', Pedro Santos ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
84', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
84', Hodge J. ↓, Afonso J. ↑,
90+2', Lee H. 🟨,
Preview
This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 1.
Recent form of Tondela has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Arouca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Arouca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Tondela could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in Tondela: Bebeto
(Injury)
Moudjatovic M.
(Injury)
Sithole S.
(International duty)
There will not play in Arouca: Dante A.
(International duty)
Flores M.
(Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Arouca: Lee H.
(Injury)
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.6:1.6).
Finland
Portugal
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Bernardo (G) 
Marques C. 
Medina B. 
Maviram E. 
Hodge J. 
Cavaleiro I. 
Siebatcheu J. 
Mantl N. (G) 
Rocha M. 
Popovic B. 
Fontan J. 
van Ee E. 
Lee H. 
Djouahra N. 
Moudjatovic M. 
Rodriguez J. 
Tavares H. 
Fayed O. 
Fukui T. 
Bacci C. 
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