Match Info

FRANCE: Coupe de France - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadium Municipal (Toulouse)

Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Toulouse		Guingamp

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.2	5	Watch
	1.53	4	5.25
	1.58	4.3	5.45
	1.56	4.12	6.1
	1.55	4.23	5.43	Watch
	1.55	3.9	5.5
	1.57	4.25	5.55	Watch
	1.58	4.3	5.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.72)	4.16 ↑ (3.6)	5.47 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
60.3%

Draw
22.6%

Guingamp
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

25.9%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

27.9%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toulouse's performance.

Guingamp has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	10%	50%

Toulouse - Guingamp Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Guingamp will win (votes: 5 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guingamp: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 5. Akdag U. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Messali R. 6. Casseres C. 8. Zajc M. 10. Donnum A. 11. Babicka S. 7. Aboukhlal Z. (C) 9. Magri F.	30. Niasse B. (G) 2. Sissoko A. 7. Gomis D. 6. Nair S. 3. Ourega D. 4. Louiserre D. (C) 11. Ghrieb R. 8. Sidibe K. 5. Phiri L. 10. Picard H. 9. Labeau B.
Substitutes
19. Canvot J. 15. Edjouma N. 16. Haug K. (G) 12. Kamanzi W. 14. Nicolaisen R. 13. Saka M. 18. Sierro V. 17. Suazo G. 20. Zuliani E.	18. Ahile T. 16. Bartouche-Selbonne T. (G) 14. Demouchy A. 19. Guendouz S. 13. Hemia A. 17. Le Bris T. 15. Luvambo T. 20. Mendes J. A. 12. Riou M.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Ripoll S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Babicka S. 🟨,
45+1', Ourega D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', Messali R. 🟨,
52', 0 - 1, Sidibe K. ⚽, Ghrieb R. (A),
60', Messali R. ↓, Suazo G. ↑,
60', Zajc M. ↓, Sierro V. ↑,
60', Akdag U. ↓, Nicolaisen R. ↑,
63', Sidibe K. 🟨,
65', Louiserre D. ↓, Riou M. ↑,
65', Phiri L. ↓, Hemia A. ↑,
65', Picard H. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
72', Le Bris T. 🟨,
74', Gomis D. 🟨,
77', Cresswell C. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
78', Sidibe K. ↓, Ahile T. ↑,
82', Ghrieb R. ↓, Mendes J. A. ↑,
86', Babicka S. ↓, Zuliani E. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Ahile T. ⚽, Mendes J. A. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Toulouse won 2.

Recent matches Toulouse is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Guingamp is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Guingamp could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Toulouse have a series of home games.

In this match Toulouse is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Toulouse won 5 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 21:22 (average 1.3:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Toulouse won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:9 (average 1.4:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
02.02.25	Toulouse - Nice	1:1 ✺
26.01.25	Toulouse - Montpellier	1:2 ✺
18.01.25	Lyon - Toulouse	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
15.01.25	Toulouse - Laval	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
12.01.25	Toulouse - Strasbourg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLTWL
- EA Guingamp
French Ligue 2
01.02.25	Guingamp - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
24.01.25	Caen - Guingamp	0:1 ✺
17.01.25	Guingamp - Rodez	3:0 ✺
Coupe De France
14.01.25	Guingamp - Sochaux	3:2 penalties ✺
French Ligue 2
10.01.25	Annecy - Guingamp	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
09.04.22	Guingamp - Toulouse	2:4
30.10.21	Toulouse - Guingamp	2:2
12.04.21	Guingamp - Toulouse	1:1
05.12.20	Toulouse - Guingamp	2:2
French Ligue 1
10.03.19	Toulouse - Guingamp	1:0
01.09.18	Guingamp - Toulouse	1:2
19.05.18	Toulouse - Guingamp	2:1

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