Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 20

Date: 5 January 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Nereo Rocco (Trieste)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Triestina		Alcione

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.08	3.2	3.35
	2.09	3.28	3.29	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.3
	2.08	3.1	3.36	Watch
	2.16	3.1	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.8)	3.12 ↓ (3.26)	3.34 ↓ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Triestina
43.5%

Draw
29.2%

Alcione
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

28%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

26.8%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Triestina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Triestina's form might have worsened.

Alcione has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alcione's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Triestina than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Triestina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alcione, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Triestina - Alcione Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Triestina will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Alcione will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Alcione (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcione (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matosevic K. (G) 28. Pedicillo L. 6. Moretti A. 23. Silvestri T. 14. Anzolin M. 17. Jonsson K. 7. Ionita A. (C) 15. Voca I. 10. D'Urso C. 11. Gunduz T. 29. Kljajic N.	22. Agazzi F. (G) 94. Bertolotti F. 6. Ciappellano D. 25. Pirola F. 73. Scuderi G. 8. Muroni M. 23. Galli G. 18. Lopes E. 10. Pitou J. 70. Bright K. 31. Marconi M.
Substitutes
19. Bagnoli E. 22. Borriello F. (G) 33. Crnigoj D. 26. D'Amore F. 34. D'Aniello P. 24. De Luca A. 25. Ellertsson M. P. 27. Faggioli A. 35. Faraci G. 5. Kosijer S. 30. Neri F. (G) 21. Tonetto M.	1. Cecchini F. (G) 81. Gallazzi F. 65. Giorgeschi S. 33. Invernizzi A. 16. Lanzi J. 5. Miculi A. 11. Morselli F. 21. Olivieri D. 17. Rebaudo R. 32. Tordini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 0 - 1, Marconi M. ⚽,
59', Gunduz T. ↓, Crnigoj D. ↑,
59', Voca I. ↓, Bagnoli E. ↑,
59', Pedicillo L. ↓, Tonetto M. ↑,
59', Galli G. ↓, Lanzi J. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Pitou J. ⚽,
74', 1 - 2, Ionita A. ⚽,
76', Marconi M. ↓, Morselli F. ↑,
76', Lopes E. ↓, Invernizzi A. ↑,
76', Muroni M. ↓, Giorgeschi S. ↑,
78', Bertolotti F. 🟨,
86', Bright K. ↓, Olivieri D. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Triestina has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alcione is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Triestina is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Triestina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Triestina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Alcione Milano	8	2	5	1	12:13	-1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unione Triestina 2012
Italian Serie C Group A
21.12.25	Vicenza Virtus - Triestina	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Triestina - AlbinoLeffe	5:2 ✺
08.12.25	Giana Erminio - Triestina	2:1 ✺
28.11.25	Triestina - Pro Patria	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Virtus Verona - Triestina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWLWT
- ASD Alcione
Italian Serie C Group A
20.12.25	AlbinoLeffe - Alcione	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Alcione - Virtus Verona	0:1 ✺
08.12.25	Lecco - Alcione	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Alcione - Trento	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	Pro Vercelli - Alcione	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
23.08.25	Alcione - Triestina	1:0
22.02.25	Triestina - Alcione	1:0
12.10.24	Alcione - Triestina	1:0

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